Weekend Winners – September 26-28 edition Racenet - 26/09/2014 Welcome to Weekend winners, your one-stop tipping sheet for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. MOIR STAKES TIP – (EXACTA) LANKAN RUPEE/UNPRETENTIOUS (Moonee Valley - Race 4 No. 2/4): Lankan Rupee should be winning this. As much as one can be jaded by his shock first-up defeat at ridiculously short odds, the run was actually quite good. They ripped through the first half of the race and then still managed to run the last 600 metres in 34.16. So given that he was first-up, he did a good job to only go down right at the death. $1.50 isn’t great value though so it may be worth throwing in Unpretentious for the exacta. At $41 for the win and $10 the place it’s worth a gamble. Unpretentious is an underrated galloper that has been hindered by injury for most of his career and heads into Friday’s event with a solid first-up hit-out. He was left chasing for virtually the entire race and was never going to reel in Angelic Light and Lankan Rupee given the time they ran the last 600 metres in. Up to 1200 metres suits and the last time he was faced with this track and distance, he finished a neck behind Spirit Of Boom in the Group I William Reid Stakes in May. And prior to that night at Moonee Valley, Spirit Of Boom had been chasing home Lankan Rupee in the Newmarket Handicap and Oakleigh Plate. SIR RUPERT CLARKE STAKES TIP – AKAVOROUN (Caulfield - Race 7 No. 10): Great race with winning chances across the board so naturally, we’re looking for value. Akavoroun took all before him through the winter and showed a quality that all punters strive to find – he’s a winner. There are plenty of talented horses that for some reason or another don’t win as often as they should however this horse knows his way to the finish line. Returned from a short break in the Bobbie Lewis and there was plenty to like about the run, finishing on the heels of the placegetters and 3-1/4 lengths astern of the dominant winner Chautauqua. Drops down to 52kg from 54.5kg and has drawn ideally with most of the other fancied runners dealt wide gates. The 1400 metres at Caulfield is a tricky start and horses from wide barriers generally have a tough time slotting in. From barrier three, Akavoroun can lob into a midfield position and if he obtains clear running in the straight, is more than capable of causing a boil-over at $21. STAR BET – ALMALAD (Moonee Valley - Race 7 No. 1): This contest is very much shaping as a Sydney versus Melbourne clash of three-year-olds. In Sydney’s corner you have Almalad and Kumaon emerging from the Golden Rose while Melbourne’s three-year-olds will be headed by Chivalry and Zebulon. Have no doubt that Chivarly and Zebulon and serious horses and could well fight out the Guineas later in the spring but have suspicious about their ability at Moonee Valley. Although Chivalry has a one-from-one record at the Valley, he only beat moderate opposition and that was back in the summer of his two-year-old season. This race is a different kettle of fish and not sure where he will land from barrier one. Zebulon looks as though he will need every bit of the mile and will be better suited on a bigger track later down the track. Almalad on the other hand, is coming off a solid fourth in the Golden Rose and has the tactical speed to cross from barrier six and take up the running. He won at Group I level at only his third start last preparation when defeating Looks Like The Cat over the Eagle Farm mile in the JJ Atkins. If he is as good as the stable thinks he is, then Friday is the time he needs to stand up and we think he will. $3.10 looks a decent price. VALUE BET – ROAD TO SHANGRI LA (Rosehill – Race 1 No. 5): Not sure how this horse opened at $21 in a six horse field. His win first-up over 1400 metres at Warwick Farm gave Anthony Cummings enough encouragement to plot a Victoria Derby path and more importantly, the horse showed enough natural ability to win over a trip that will be well short of his ideal distance. He gets up to 1800 metres on Saturday and expecting him to give the favourites something to think about. He actually beat Pounamu on debut and yet in this race Pounamu is around $3. The favourite Sweynesse is the one to beat on form but keep in mind that there aren’t many sons of Lonhro that win past a mile. Have to be on at the price. TRACK SPECIALIST TIP: SOLSAY (Moonee Valley - Race 3 No. 5): Consistent galloper with great stats around Moonee Valley. Slight query coming back 250 metres but has had three weeks between runs to keep some freshness in his legs and is near enough to peak fitness after three runs back. Of his five rivals, three are first-up while the favourite, Angels Beach is second-up and most likely looking for further. Small fields are always tricky affairs with tactics playing a big role but from barrier two, can see Solsay following the speedster Vatican which crosses from the outside gate. This should allow for Solsay to have a crack at him in the straight. CLASS TIP – KIRRAMOSA (Rosehill – Race 6 No. 3): Expecting Kirramosa to show something third-up on Saturday. She’s a classy galloper and both runs this time in have been sound. She ran well behind Sweet Idea first-up before finishing 3-1/4 lengths off Cluster over 1400 metre at Rosehill when coming off a 35-day break. Up to 1500 metres and third-up, she should be prominent here. Can find a decent position in transit from barrier four and has the services of Tommy Berry. At $15, she’s definitely worth an each-way ticket. LUCKY LAST TIP - LION OF BELFORT (Caulfield - Race 8 No. 12): The final race on the card at Caulfield wraps up a blockbuster weekend of racing and hopefully you can finish on a winning note with Lion Of Belfort. He had two forgettable runs last campaign in high grade races but resumed at Moonee Valley with a solid fifth behind Atlante three weeks ago. Hes been kept on the fresh side and the last time he went into a race off a 21-day break he finished third at Group I level behind Zoustar in the Coolmoore Stud Stakes. You know the ability is there and expecting him to be competitive on Sunday back at his home track. Hes drawn a touch awkwardly but with a long run to the first and only turn, he should be able to slot in worse than midfield and produce that big finish we know he has. $13 is an attractive price.
Posted on: Fri, 26 Sep 2014 07:04:45 +0000
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