Welcome to Episode 1 of Anti-Vaxxing Kills with Thanatos Data taken from an anti-vax website (so they cant complain about Big Pharma sources), Modern Alternative Mama: Article Enough is enough with blaming anti-vaxxers > 70 cases of measles in Disneyland outbreak > 5 of them were fully vaccinated > 37 were not vaccinated > ( = 42 people we know the vaccination status of) Article There are more unvaccinated kids than you think > minimum figure stated is 85% of Americans ARE vaccinated . Welcome to Maths: Lets be generous in favour of the anti-vaxxers - 65% vaccinated Binomial Probability distribution - I will give you this lifeline: virus spread is not perfectly binomially distributed, but given that this happened at Disneyland, where theres no bias as to what groups (vax/anti-vax) are hanging out with who, this is close enough. Let X be the number of vaccinated children who get measles in this outbreak. Assuming vaccination gives NO BENEFIT to the immune system, the chance of a virus spreading to a vaccinated or unvaccinated person is equal to the chance of a random person /being/ (un)vaccinated. Ergo: X~B(42, 0.65) 42 x 0.65 = 27.3, which means that the likelihood of X-many vaccinated people getting measles increases as X does, until X reaches 27. Probability of (X < 6): This includes the chances of X being 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 and 0, and, as anyone studying Maths at A-Level or higher will tell you, is a perfectly valid statistical test for vaccines have no effect, given the stated assumptions. Using information from the 27.3 calculation above, P(X
Posted on: Sun, 25 Jan 2015 01:31:16 +0000
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