What are the odds that the growth rate of global crop yields could fall by half in just 20 years? How does climate change shift those odds? Our associate director David Lobell and his colleague Claudia Tebaldi calculated the likelihood that climate change will cause a major decline in wheat and corn production, compared to a scenario with no human-made global warming. They found that the odds of a 10% yield loss over 20 years jumps sharply with climate change - from a 1 in 200 chance, to a 1 in 10 chance for corn and a 1 in 20 chance for wheat. Measuring these risks can help decision makers plan for the future, especially organizations that work on food security and related issues like conflict prevention. Read more about the new study, Getting caught with our plants down: the risks of a global crop yield slowdown from climate trends in the next two decades.
Posted on: Thu, 10 Jul 2014 14:00:01 +0000
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