Whither Central Asia after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan? That is the question on the lips of Central Asia watchers globally, as well as policymakers and pundits in the region. There are numerous theories, but few take into account the full picture of shifting geopolitical tectonics. The narrative popular in some circles in Washington and propagated by some in Kabul and elsewhere in the region is that the greatest upcoming threat will be the potential “spillover” of extremist Islamism into the post-Soviet space. The coming great power vacuum in the region, when the US loses interest and Russia finds itself less capable of asserting itself, is often linked to the supposed spillover effect to create a swirl of potential political instability, perhaps resembling the current tumult across the Middle East. Leaders in Central Asia are said to be terrified of the potential for not just a Kyrgyzstan-style perpetual color revolution, but a military coup such as in Egypt or even the sort of prolonged civil war we are witnessing in Syria. These are not illegitimate concerns for some of the leaders of Central Asia. Afghanistan itself certainly faces a very uncertain future. And there are parts of the wider region in which separatism and violent extremism are genuine potentialities.
Posted on: Tue, 13 Aug 2013 23:53:13 +0000
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