Winter Weather Outlook for North Texas Rain has started to fall across most of North Texas this evening. The upper level disturbance that is causing the rain will be with us until Friday afternoon. Temperatures will slowly fall overnight but are expected to remain above freezing. However, the temperature about 2,000 feet above the surface will be the most important temperature to watch tomorrow and Friday morning. Various models have this temperature anywhere from 31 degrees to 34 degrees. Normally, not a big deal. In this case, however, it makes all of the difference in the world. If the temperature at 2,000 feet were to become colder than currently forecast, all of our rain would turn to snow. How can we tell if this will happen? Our wind direction will give us a clue. If our winds stay more easterly, then rain looks like a good bet. However, if our winds start to blow out of the northeast, things might get messy. There is some colder air northeast of us in the Ohio Valley. If our northeast winds transport some of that colder air our way, thats when our snow chances would increase. It is very difficult to forecast such a subtle wind direction change. If we were to get more snow instead of rain, our surface temperature would likely remain above freezing, which would limit accumulations. But again, if the snow is heavy enough, the snow could cool the surrounding air and lower surface temperatures just enough to get us close to freezing. It would take a heavy snow burst to do that. Not impossible in localized areas, but not as likely at this point. Since the rain has started, we will be able to monitor wind direction and air temperatures more closely and see how they are behaving. This is a classic setup for all rain or all snow depending on where you live. As a general rule, the further northwest of DFW you are, the better chance you will see at least some snow. Areas southeast of DFW, you will probably see all rain. The good news is that this is not an ice storm type of setup. It will be rain or snow. More updates as necessary.
Posted on: Thu, 22 Jan 2015 01:35:33 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015