Wintry Mix & Ice Monday Morning A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for much of the region from 1 AM Monday to 1 PM Monday for light snow and icing. Precipitation is expected to develop along a frontal boundary this afternoon and throughout the day tomorrow. As it does so high pressure currently over the region will move offshore. This will set up a southerly flow and allow warm air to move into the region. This will happen in the mid levels of the atmosphere first and work its way down to the surface. What this creates is a scenario for a wintry mix and icing. Overnight precipitation will move in from the southwest to northeast. At first this may start as a period of snowfall before transitioning to a wintry mix and freezing rain. Temperatures are expected to remain below freezing at the surface and this will allow for any rain to freeze upon contact. Now remember that it does not take much ice to create problems. Ice is expected to accrete during the morning commute and among major highways in the area. One thing that we have going for us is that precipitation is not expected to be too heavy but even a trace of ice make for problems. Around daybreak we will see the freezing line slowly move north from the I-95 corridor. Sometime between 8-11 AM the Hunterdon county region will go above freezing. Locations to the north and valleys may hold onto colder temperatures into the early afternoon. This is why places north of I-78 will see higher ice amounts than southern locations. After temperatures go above freezing plain rain will fall but dont expect much in the way of melting. Highs will struggle to get much higher than the low to mid 30s. Rainfall amounts less than 1/4 are expected, with southern locations getting more rain. As the cold front moves through the region during the afternoon winds will shift out of the northwest. Temperatures will begin to cool at all levels of the atmosphere. This may allow for a period of snowfall but it will depend on how fast the cold air moves back in and the amount of precipitation left behind the front. Typically you have much drier air behind a cold front so naturally the moisture should be limited. We will have to see how this plays out during the event. Snow accumulations will be less than an inch as the snow to ice changeover is expected to happen relatively quick. Locations to the north will hold onto snow a bit longer but even there light accumulations north of I-80 are expected. The threat for ice will be north and west of I-95. These locations will hold onto colder temperatures longer than southern New Jersey. Ice accretions: For locations around the I-95 corridor into the Trenton area expect less than 1/10 of an inch. The further north you are in the zone the greater the chances of seeing more ice. One you get north of the Rt 202 area into Somerville/New Brunswick area you will see the potential for higher ice totals. From this area to the I-78 corridor ice totals of .10 - .20 will be possible. North of I-78 into northern NJ and northern PA ice totals will be highest where .10 - .25 will be possible. The morning commute is expected to be affected by this icing event. Use extreme caution driving to work or school and give yourself extra time to get to your destination. As for schools I expect numerous delays and closures. I will provide another update tonight if anything changes and most certainly will have updates throughout the morning.
Posted on: Sun, 11 Jan 2015 18:38:37 +0000
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