With oil prices continuing to fall, how long can Iran (and Russia) keep propping Assad up...? Syrias Assad depending on Iran financial aid 30-12-2014: The Syrian economy has effectively ceased to function, and President Bashar al-Assads government is almost entirely dependent on loans from Iran and some aid from the Russian Federation. ...With the price of oil dropping drastically, neither Russia nor Iran could continue its aid to Assad indefinitely. The drying up of funds could be one of the reasons Assad has recently intensified efforts to mobilise reservists, in order to make up for the loss of soldiers who are deserting his army or draft-dodging. These efforts include sweeping arrest campaigns against those who attempt to avoid serving in his army. In October, the regime stepped up activations of reserve forces. Tens of thousands of reservists have been called up, and soldiers and militiamen have erected scores of checkpoints and increased raids on cafes and homes to apprehend those reservists who refuse to comply. Similar measures increasingly target those who avoid regular military service, a compulsory 18-month period for all men who are 18 and older, wrote Hugh Naylor in the Washington Post. ...Another factor that could be causing desertions in the ranks of the army is a growing dissatisfaction amongst the Alawite community, on whose support Assad has relied on throughout the war. The Alawites, who make up some 12 percent of the population, top the ranks of Syrias professional army and security services. However, in recent months analysts say cracks have been appearing in the community, whose members span the socio-economic spectrum in Syria. In July, a group of Alawite activists launched the Speak Up Against Assad campaign, protesting against the high numbers of deaths among Alawites during the war. Then, in October, a group calling itself the Syrian Alawite Congregation issued a statement calling on Alawites to take a stand against Assad’s regime, also citing high death rates among their community. The statement alleged that Alawites were targeted for conscription in the pro-Assad paramilitaries, because the President believes they are most faithful to him. If these cracks deepen, and significant numbers of Assads sect come out against him, the results would be catastrophic for Assad.
Posted on: Tue, 30 Dec 2014 14:14:46 +0000