YOU PEOPLE, DO NOT BLAME ME FOR BEING LATE WITH SOME NEWS BUT THE MUSEVENI AND SEJUSA SAGA HAD OVER SHADOWED A LOT. Read this. ---------------------------------- By Sadab Kitatta Kaaya The infighting within the ruling NRM is likely to shape Ugandas politics in 2015, as the country gears up for the 2016 general elections. An internal challenge from his long-time confidant, Amama Mbabazi, is likely to continue presenting Museveni with his biggest political headache. Museveni successfully ousted Mbabazi from the all-powerful position of secretary general (SG) during the December 15, 2014 delegates conference that adopted new amendments to the partys constitution, giving the chairman executive powers to appoint party leaders. Having brought him to his knees, Museveni tried to appease Mbabazi towards the end of the year by nominating him to the NRM Central Executive Committee, the partys second most powerful organ. Mbabazi, however, used the Christmas holidays to announce that he was still the rightful SG until September 2015 when his five-year term ends. Musevenis other estranged former allies such as former vice president Prof Gilbert Bukenya and former coordinator of intelligence services Gen David Sejusa, according to political analysts, will be destabilising factors within the ruling party. Since last year, opposition politicians have been working together in an attempt to hammer out a deal that will see them field a single presidential candidate. However, with some opposition politicians such as Dr Kizza Besigye focusing their energies on civil action rather than election campaigns, the joint candidate goal could fail, leaving the political field to NRM. The politics will largely depend on the conduct of [the people] that have fallen out with Museveni and how they will handle emerging political developments, says Kampala Lord Mayor, Erias Lukwago. Last week, The Observer reported that President Museveni had spent at least Shs 75bn to neutralise the political threat from Mbabazi. However, with Mbabazi keeping his cards close to his chest thus far, it is likely that Museveni will continue to spend big to keep his erstwhile comrades at bay. Agents of confusion Whereas Bukenya and Sejusa have made overtures to the opposition, the duo has not been embraced. Mbabazi, on the other hand, has kept the opposition at arms length, insisting that he will fight for his political future from within NRM. Some leading opposition forces such as Masaka municipality MP Mathias Mpuuga, who is also the national coordinator of the Activists for Change (A4C), a loose political pressure group that organised the walk-to-work protests of 2011, looks at the trio as likely agents of confusion in the opposition. They will leave the opposition more confused and disjointed because of their confusing impact; not because of their ability to swing the political tide, but by being unclear about their own agenda, Mpuuga said. In the eyes of some political pundits, there is a likelihood of Bukenya returning to the NRM fold to work with Museveni, while it is unclear which way Mbabazi will go. The sudden return of Gen Sejusa from the UK late last year has turned him into a pariah of sorts, with opposition figures unsure whether his intentions are genuine. Unemployment NRM Secretary General designate Justine Kasule Lumumba believes that as the country gears up for the 2016 elections, the ruling party is likely to get pre-occupied with contentious issues such as the widespread youth unemployment and the performance of the economy. Issues of service delivery are going to be very critical, especially to the party in power. They are going to make us account for what we promised to do, what we have been able to do and what [is] yet to be done, Lumumba said. Lands, Housing and Urban Development minister Daudi Migereko believes NRM will address youth employment issues once the many critical projects that government has embarked on take-off. Opportunities for everybody to earn a living will be greatly enhanced by projects such as the SGR (Standard gauge railway), power and roads, Migereko said. However, the terrain may not be as promising as Migereko projects, according to Stephen Tashobya, chairman of Parliaments committee on Legal and Parliamentary Affairs. Government has a challenge of maintaining the macro- and micro-stability of the economy because it can create [social] disorder in 2015 or immediately after, he said. Tashobya also argues that some of the determinants of the countrys political trajectory will come from outside Ugandas borders. He noted that the forthcoming elections in Tanzania, Burundi and the DRC are likely to have a direct impact on the performance of Ugandas economy. It will be interesting to see how we can be able to maintain stability in that political heat in the region, Tashobya said. Reforms In his new years message, President Museveni promised that government will table constitutional amendment proposals immediately Parliament reconvenes from recess. Opposition parties and civil society groups (CSOs) have been at the fore of pushing for a set of constitutional and electoral reforms that they hope will deliver free and fair elections. The push was ignored by the top NRM leadership and fears are heightened that the party will use its numerical strength in Parliament to defeat proposals fronted by the opposition and CSOs. allafrica/stories/201501021521.html
Posted on: Sat, 03 Jan 2015 23:56:46 +0000
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