since the number of the selectee has been reduced from 140k to 125k, if we assume that they will keep that number it means that the 140k for DV-2014 was too much, lets calculate this diminution region by region then try to calculate the max CN for each region relative to that diminution, and taking in account the specifies for each region: DV-2015 la diff avec la DV-2014 en pourcentage EU = 40 000 - 6600 14% AF = 58 000 -4000 7% AS = 20 002 -3300 14% OC = 3 499 -700 16% SA = 3 999 -600 13% theoretically we have 4000 extra selectees this year for Africa, we know that Egy, Gha and Ethi will be not affected by any restriction since all their CNs are low, Nigeria will be an exception since their CNs is not progressing very well, 62k- the 3 special countries = 46550 46550-4000= 42550, without Nigeria we will have 42550-6043= 36507 (just to have a uniform distribution from 1 to 117k) the total without the special countries is 62mil- 4 countries= 40507 so 36507/40507=90.12% 117k (le max CN) * 90.12= 105446, around 105.5k EU: total: 46598 if we remove the special countries we will have 46598-6009 (Uk) -5014(UZ)=35575 (since they will not be affected by any restriction/no more special CN for them) 35575-6600=28975 28975/35575=81.44% (so 81.44% excluding UkR and UZB will have an interview) lets calculate the CN: since we know that the highest EU CN is around 53500, so 53500*81.44= 43570, so the highest EU CN will be around 43600 Asia: Ill assume that even the special countries will be affected by the limit of 14% including Iran and Nepal, so the calculation will be easy 25000 (highest AS number) * 86% = 21500 (highest Asian CN) SA: since they dont have special counties the calculation is easy also, I am just not sure about the highest CN, I think its around 3000, so 3000 * 87% = 2610 (highest CN for SA) OC: same: since i am not sure about the max OC CN, so just multiply that max CN time 0.84 (which is 100- 16%) , so you will get the correct value Summary: AF 105500 EU 43600 AS 21500 SA 2610 OC max CN * 0.84
Posted on: Thu, 11 Sep 2014 11:55:09 +0000
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