the biggest double cross in history? okay...so ive been up all night and have yet to get some sleep. so forgive me if the following makes no sense or is completely off base. but, as i was nodding off in my car driving home i was thinking, is the US about to ditch saudi arabia for iran? now im not saying that this is definitely the case. im just thinking out loud here and can easily be convinced this is not so. forgive the unorganized thought process below: the US has held the worlds reserve currency ever since we convinced saudi arabia to only sell oil paid for in US dollars. the saudis have consistently been over-stating their oil reserves to the tune of 40% (as seen in wikileaks cables). this leaves venezuela, canada (who has largely unconventional oil) and iran. in fact...leaving out more expensive and harder to process unconventional canadian oil, iran has more. iran has had sanctions imposed on it with the amount of oil that it is allowed to sell, leaving the other oil players to deplete their reserves relative to iran. so what? the US has the worlds reserve currency. what does this have to do with oil? the US, because it has the worlds reserve currency, has over extended its debt and trade deficit. to pay for cheap goods imported, we have always just printed dollars. dollars that then pay for oil (energy). we essentially can buy other poeples stuff and not have to do any work to pay for it. its been an amazing racket, but the nations of the world are tired of our outrageous fiscal policies (not to mention foreign policies built around maintaining our oil based dominance at the expense of foreign lives). our limitless printing of dollars has strained the world economy and they want a new way of doing business. china over the past year has increased its gold holdings 2,000 tons. more than doubling its [admitted] holdings. some figure that they could have well north of that figure. india, russia, brazil, and south africa have all been doing their own hoarding as well. iran has also been making deals to sell their oil in exchange for gold, while china is priming the world stage to do trade in their currency (above and beyond their deals with russia, india and s. africa to trade outside of the US dollar). developing nations are leaning towards a more stable gold backed system. but none of this matters if the US can ally with other like-minded nations willing to curb the worlds most used and coveted energy supply. is it unreasonable to float the idea that the US could ditch the drying up saudi fields in exchange for irans relatively cheaper oil? many have speculated that we are at peak oil now. that the easy to get oil has all been depleted, and the returns are only going diminish. there is no other energy source that has the infrastructure to support the systems that we have now, much less the growth that is demanded by generations of cheap oil addicts. we have already see the strain in saudi/US relations with regards to egypt and syria. now with iran nuclear talks, those stresses are becoming more pronounced. S.A. is now recasting their gold to meet the chinese .9999% purity standard; effectively hedging their bets against the dollar dominance. now, obviously, a double cross of this magnitude would have HUGE political ramifications world-wide. people would be enraged over the abandoning of israel (dont get me started on israel), and saudi arabia would cut their oil shipments to the US and deal with the chinese, et al. we still get A LOT of oil from S.A. i dont think it would be hyperbolic to think that a nuclear war could develop from such a drastic maneuver. so maybe the US is trying to stave off (if only for a few years) the apocalyptic ramifications of a world past peak oil by simply opening up irans reserves and not outright ditching S.A. a friendly relationship with iran will put two of the 4 largest oil reserves allied with the US (canada and iran). the other two being a quickly dying saudi arabia and a politically unstable venezuela (look for more US involvement in stoking that instability) are left to the rest of the world looking to oust US hegemony. whatever is going on, its interesting and has innumerable layers im sure. your thoughts?
Posted on: Wed, 27 Nov 2013 14:31:36 +0000
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