#tristatewx April 3, 2014: Morning update thread. Good morning everyone, it is going to be a rough day with the potential for severe thunderstorms (including tornadoes). We go through this several times each year. You should be prepared and used to it by now. Remember that a meteorologist can not tell you what is going to happen in town A, B, or C. Not until storms form and warnings are issued - even then we cant tell you what will happen at your house. Listen to all warnings today. If a warning is issued then take your safety precautions. Keep you weather radios on - your weather apps handy - local media will be covering this event. Tune in and listen to those you trust. DO NOT depend on me for your warnings. I will post when I can - I will post updates when I can. Your SOURCE for warnings should be your apps, weather radios, local media, or the NWS web-site/other. Forecast... TIMING - thunderstorms are already occurring this morning, as expected. These will continue for several more hours. Then a lull may occur (MAY occur) during the late morning and early afternoon hours. A second round of storms will form this afternoon and continue into tonight. IMPACT - large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Locally heavy rain could cause low lying area to have ponding of water or brief flash flooding. Cloud to ground lightning. The most intense storms could produce winds over 70 mph - golf ball size hail or larger - EF2 or greater tornadoes. WHERE - our entire region is out-looked for a few severe thunderstorms today. Not every county and city will experience a severe thunderstorm. Remember that severe thunderstorms by nature are hit and miss when it comes to actually producing damage. A warm front is draped across portions of Missouri and Illinois at this hour. Showers and a few severe thunderstorms are tracking along this warm front. You can see those on radar. A few tornado warnings have been issued near the St Louis area and eastward. Isolated severe thunderstorm risk this morning with the current activity and mainly over Illinois and Indiana. Lesser chances this morning for the rest of us. The real concern comes later today (even more so if the sun comes out). A cold front will approach from the west and this will trigger showers and thunderstorms. Some supercell thunderstorms are likely - supercells are the individual thunderstorms that tend to produce large hail and tornadoes. Eventually a line of thunderstorms will form and race across our region. This line of storms will produce heavy rain, lightning, hail, and even a few fast moving embedded tornadoes. I expect tornado watches to be issued later today for most (if not all) of the area. A watch means that conditions are favorable for tornado development. A WARNING means to take action immediately and see shelter. RADARS CHECK the time stamps on radars - make sure it is the latest radar. I will post several sources for radar. If one radar does not work then try another one. I see one or two are not working this morning - maybe they will work later today. IF NOT then try another radar. It is going to be a long day for forecasters. This activity will continue into tonight. The cold front may not move through the whole area until after 10 or 11 pm. There still remain questions on how much severe weather will occur in our region today. Ongoing more rain and thunderstorms is keeping the atmosphere a bit more stable. How soon this moves out will help determine what happens later. Either way - sun or no sun - today has the potential to cause big problems for a few locations. I would be surprised if there were not some tornado reports in our region today. I will post links below - I will post a new thread this afternoon - follow along and share the thread for others
Posted on: Thu, 03 Apr 2014 12:21:59 +0000
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