yawningbread 5 October 2014 at 10:55 Thanks for unearthing this. To help readers, let me quote in full Teo Chee Hean’s reply in the parliamentary sitting of 10 Sept 2012 that you cited: QUOTE 33 Ms Tan Su Shan asked the Prime Minister with the tightening in the grant of permanent residence and Singapore citizenship since 2008, what is the quantitative trend going forward and whether the same levels of decline can be expected as have been witnessed in the last three years. Mr Teo Chee Hean (for the Prime Minister): Since the tightening of our immigration framework in late 2009, the number of new permanent residents (PRs) has decreased from an average of 58,000 per year from 2004 to 2008, to 28,500 per year from 2010 onwards. The number of new Singapore citizens (SCs) has remained relatively stable at an average of 18,500 per year in the last five years. Fewer SCs were granted last year because of the introduction of the Singapore Citizenship Journey, which has lengthened the time taken for applicants to be granted citizenship by about two months. The number of PRs and SCs granted in any given year depends on a combination of factors, including the number of applications received as well as the calibre and profile of applicants, such as their economic contributions, age, family profile and length of stay in Singapore. These are factors which are considered under the Government’s immigration framework, to holistically assess applicants’ ability to contribute, integrate well into society and their commitment to sinking roots. We will continue to calibrate the immigration framework to address our population challenges and constraints. As part of the ongoing review and public engagement on population issues, we are reviewing the number of immigrants Singapore takes in. ENDQUOTE It appears that he was referring to the full calender years 2007 to 2011 (“last five years”), and as Ngiam said, pro-rating it for the 3.5 years to the 2010 Census (June 2010) indicates that about 65,000 new citizens were taken in between Jan 2007 and June 2010. To cohere with my estimate, this suggests that between 2000 and end-2006, hardly any new citizens were taken in. This is not credible in my view. There may be far fewer in those years, but not close to nil. This means that my figures are an underestimate. Yet, my numbers are grounded in the census data. How to explain the discrepancy? Off hand I can think of two possibilities: 1. Re-emigration by new citizens is much higher than I assumed; perhaps as many as two in three new citizens re-emigrated. 2. Emigration by native citizens of Chinese/Indian/Other ancestry is much higher than emigration rates indicated by Malay figures. You may recall that in my calculations, I simply used the Malay death-and-emigration rate to adjust the native Chinese/Indian/Other population downwards. Perhaps these native citizens are leaving Singapore way faster than we think, such that it needed 18,500 new citizens a year to make even a small increase in population?
Posted on: Tue, 07 Oct 2014 22:53:49 +0000
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