1100 PM HST FRI OCT 17 2014 THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ANA HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT DATA FROM A U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUPPORTED INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR WERE 76 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHILE REDUCED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS RESULTED IN AN ESTIMATE OF 74 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE NOAA G-IV COMPLETED ITS FINAL SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION ON ANA THIS AFTERNOON...AND CPHC IS GRATEFUL FOR THE CRITICAL OBSERVATIONS IN A DATA SPARSE AREA. INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET AT 310/11 KT...AS ANA IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT A RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE DATE LINE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY...BUT AS THIS NEW RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE CYCLONE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ON AN INCREASINGLY NORTHWARD TRACK. THE UPDATED TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS...CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE RIGHT HAND SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST TVCN CONSENSUS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...ANA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT. ANA IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MODEST WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER. WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANA FROM INTENSIFYING OVER THE ANOMALOUSLY WATER LOCATED TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS OFFERING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE TRENDS PRESENTED BY SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. THE IVCN CONSENSUS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IN THE LONGER RANGES...AS HWRF AND GFDL STRENGTHEN ANA TO A STRONG HURRICANE ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO A DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WHILE OTHER MODELS INDICATE THAT WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 17.8N 157.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 18.8N 158.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 19.6N 159.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 20.2N 161.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 20.6N 162.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 21.5N 165.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 23.5N 167.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 25.5N 168.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD MC
Posted on: Sat, 18 Oct 2014 09:04:14 +0000
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