16/10/2014 Commodities Buzz: ICSG Projects World Copper Deficit of 300000 Tonnes In 2014 ICSG projections for 2014 indicate that world apparent refined copper demand is expected to exceed refined copper production by about 300,000 metric tonnes (t). According to ICSG projections for 2015, after five consecutive years of apparent deficits, the copper market could show a production surplus relative to demand. World production of refined copper is expected to exceed demand for refined copper by about 390,000 t, as demand will lag behind the growth in production. In developing its projections, ICSG recognized that the global market balances could vary from those projected owing to numerous factors that could reduce or enhance projections for both production and usage. After a growth of 8% in 2013, world mine production is expected to grow by around 3% in 2014 to 18.6 Mt (million tonnes) compared with that in 2013. Operational failures combined with delays in ramp-up production and start-up of new mines are leading to lower than anticipated growth. Strong growth in world mine production is however expected in 2015 owing to additional output from expansions and new mine projects. After adjusting by historical disruption factors, world mine production is anticipated to grow by around 7% in 2015. Most of the new production is expected to be in the form of copper in concentrate. In 2014, world refined copper production is expected to increase by around 5% to 22.1 Mt compared with that in 2013 mainly supported by expanded capacity at electrolytic plants in China (and to a lesser extent from expanded SX-EW capacity in Africa). Primary refined production (excluding SX-EW) is expected to grow by 7% benefiting from adequate availability of concentrate while secondary production growth is foreseen at 2% impacted by tightness in the scrap market. In 2015, world refined copper production is expected to grow further by around 4% to 23.1 Mt. ICSG expects world apparent refined demand in 2014 to grow by about 5% from that in 2013 to 22.4 Mt partially supported by the tightness in the scrap market. Apparent demand in China is expected to increase by about 7% in 2014. Usage in the rest of the world is expected to increase by about 3.5%. For 2015, although industrial demand growth in China is expected at 5%, the growth in apparent refined usage is expected at 1.8%. Therefore, world apparent usage growth in 2015 is expected at around 1% although underlying industrial demand growth is expected to be higher.
Posted on: Thu, 16 Oct 2014 16:47:57 +0000
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