2% Tornado Threat and 5% Damaging Wind threat has been introduced - TopicsExpress

Joseph Brown

2% Tornado Threat and 5% Damaging Wind threat has been introduced to our outlook SOUTHEAST STATES/APPALACHIANS... WHILE UPPER HEIGHT RISES WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION...A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS /NEAR OR ABOVE 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ WILL REMAIN ALONG/EAST OF A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE...BENEATH A MODERATE BELT /25-35 KT/ OF SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN QUITE COMMON...WITH TSTMS MORE PREVALENT INTO THE AFTERNOON INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF DOWNBURSTS. BUT...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE/WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND RELATIVELY LIMITED DESTABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SCOPE/MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE RISK. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE ASIDE...SOME TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ESPECIALLY IF LOW-LEVEL FLOW INDEED STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES AS PROGGED BY VARIOUS 00Z-BASED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. EVEN SO...ANY SUCH POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY TONIGHT VIA A SLIGHTLY COOLER NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.

Posted on: Wed, 03 Jul 2013 06:25:15 +0000

2% Tornado Threat and 5% Damaging Wind threat has been introduced - TopicsExpress

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