2015: The hurdles before Jonathan Via PUNCHNEWS In this report, LEKE BAIYEWU examines the challenges ahead of President Goodluck Jonathan’s reelection bid After much anticipation, President Goodluck Jonathan, on Thursday, declared his interest to contest the 2015 presidential election. The declaration came after his party — the Peoples Democratic Party — gave an October 30 deadline for the purchase of declaration of interest and nomination forms. Jonathan had kept mum on his ambition, despite that he had been named the presidential candidate of the PDP, while the party and a pro-Jonathan political group, Transformation Ambassadors of Nigeria, had held rallies for him across the country. While Jonathan’s re-election bid is on, political pundits have said the President should brace himself for tough times ahead, as there are several hurdles to cross as he approaches the poll. Opposition from APC At least four major political parties and several political groups had merged in 2013 to form the All Progressives Congress. The parties include the All Nigeria Peoples Party, the Action Congress of Nigeria, the Congress for Progressive Change, and a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance. One major goal the APC wants to achieve is to end the reign of the ruling PDP, which has been in control of the central government since 1999. It is bent on sacking President Goodluck Jonathan from office at the Presidential Villa in 2015. The merger had given the opposition party more national appeal, as it was made up of parties allegedly considered by political analysts as regional. Again, a large percentage of the APC is made up of prominent ex-PDP members, including serving governors, who had left the ruling party for the opposition. Again, the APC has zoned its presidential ticket to the North, which political analysts believe is a deliberate attempt to lure the zone into voting against Jonathan from the South. Furthermore, none of APC’s presidential aspirants — former Head of State, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd.); former Vice-President, Atiku Abubakar; and Governor of Kano State, Rabi’u Kwankwaso — can be underrated by the incumbent. Except the APC adopts a consensus arrangement like the PDP, Jonathan will know his biggest opponent when the opposition party’s candidate emerges from the primary scheduled to hold on December 2. Internal crisis in PDP The PDP is not at the crossroads in choosing its presidential candidate, unlike the APC, as members of its Board of Trustees, National Executive Council and the National Working Committee unanimously endorsed Jonathan as their consensus candidate. However, second-term PDP governors, majority of whom are senatorial aspirants, are seeking an automatic ticket in return. Also, the governors want to influence the emergence of their successors through adoption and consensus arrangements. These, observers have noted, will not go down well with other aspirants that will be eased out of the race. In another development, there is also the issue of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who had insisted that he would not be actively involved in the activities of the party unless his grievances are resolved. The ex-president had, on April 3, 2012, resigned his appointment as the Chairman of the BoT of the party. Furthermore, in an 18-page letter dated December 2, 2013, Obasanjo had written a stinker to Jonathan, accusing him of various offences and listed what he felt to be Jonathan’s failings, including not honouring his words and taking actions calculated at destroying Nigeria. The President had also replied Obasanjo, asking him to provide proofs for his allegations. The elder statesman had also written to the then National Chairman of the PDP, Bamanga Tukur, threatening to boycott activities of the party until the Chairman, Mobilisation and Organisation Committee of the party in the South-West, Buruji Kashamu, was sacked. After the protracted crises that led to the resignation of Bamanga Tukur as National Chairman of the PDP, Obasanjo, who had accused the President of using Tukur to cause the lingering crises in the party, insisted that the problems of the party were beyond the resignation of Tukur. As the 2015 elections approach, both ruling and opposition parties are now lobbying Obasanjo for his backing on their political adventures. The national leadership of the PDP had recently begged the ex-president for forgiveness and for him to “return to the party.” Obasanjo had, however, stated that he had never left and remained a member, while insisting that all the issues he raised must be resolved. Alleged one-term pact with the North President Jonathan had been accused of signing an agreement with northern elite to serve one term. The Governor of Niger State, Babangida Aliyu, who is also the Chairman of the Northern Governors’ Forum, was among the first to make the allegation. Former President Olusegun Obasanjo, as well as a Second Republic lawmaker and Convener of the Coalition of Northern Politicians, Academics, Professionals and Businessmen, Dr. Junaidu Mohammed — among several other northerners, mostly governors at that period — had also made the claim. For instance, Obasanjo, in the damning letter to Jonathan in 2013, had alleged that the President’s failure to keep his promise not to seek a second term had also worsened the crises in the PDP. He said, while Jonathan kept denying nursing the ambition, his body language, as well as that of his aides, had indicated the contrary. Obasanjo recalled that before the 2011 general elections, Jonathan allegedly told some governors and PDP stakeholders, including him, that he would not seek re-election. According to the former ex-head of state and president, Jonathan’s failure to keep the promise had made him appear like a man without honour. He told the President that it would be “fatally morally flawed” for him to contest in 2015. “As a leader, two things you must cherish and hold dear among others are trust and honour, both of which are important ingredients of character. I will want to see anyone in the office of the Presidency as a man or woman who can be trusted, a person of honour in his words and character,” Obasanjo added. The Presidency, including Jonathan himself, had dismissed the one-term agreement claim. However, the Presidency and the PDP will have to make Jonathan — a South-South man — appealing to the northern electorate, especially the elite. As it is, some northerners still believe that power should return to the region in 2015, a hurdle the APC appears to have crossed with its zoning plan. In another development, Jonathan, on January 31, 2011 — few months before his election for the first term — reportedly said he had no intention to stay in office beyond 2015, saying he would not contest the 2015 election. Vanguard quoted Jonathan as saying this when he was interacting with Nigerians, most of whom were diplomats working for the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa and the African Union diplomats in Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia. He partly said, “If I’m voted into power within the next four years, the issue of power will become a thing of the past. Four years is enough for anyone in power to make significant improvement and if I can’t improve on power within this period, it then means I cannot do anything even if I am there for the next four years.” “I would have loved that the Nigerians in the Diaspora vote this year (2011) but to be frank with you, that is going to be difficult now. Presently, the law does not allow for voting outside Nigeria. And so, this year, Nigerians in the Diaspora will not vote but I will work towards it by 2015, even though I will not be running for election.” Boko Haram and Chibok girls The current administration is battling with terrorism predominantly in the north-eastern part of the country. While the Federal Government claims to be winning the war against Boko Haram insurgents, killings, kidnappings and destruction have continued. Members of the Islamic sect had on April 14, 2014, stormed the Government Secondary School, Chibok, Borno State, where they abducted over 200 schoolgirls. The development had called global attention to the spate of insecurity in the country. It would be recalled that the Northern Elders Forum, on August 11, 2014, issued an October deadline for Jonathan to produce the Chibok girls or forget about his 2015 ambition. Ex-Speaker of the Plateau State House of Assembly, Mr. Solomon Dalung, who spoke on behalf of the forum at a press briefing in Kaduna, said, “In the light of our firm conviction that the insurgency and related security challenges pose threats to the 2015 elections and the survival of our nation, we strongly advise President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan to bring an end to the insurgency in all its manifestations, and produce the Chibok girls before the end of October 2014,” The NEF added, “In the event that President Jonathan fails to do this, Nigerians will be left with the only conclusion that he has forfeited his right to ask for our mandate beyond 2015.” However, Jonathan said no group could threaten him before he would perform his official duties, adding that it was wrong for a group to issue such deadline. While speaking through his Senior Special Assistant on Public Affairs, Dr. Doyin Okupe, he said he was already working on how to rescue the abducted girls. The girls have remained in hostage for over six months, while Jonathan has announced his interest to seek reelection. Challenge on eligibility There are pending cases in different courts, challenging Jonathan’s eligibility to run for another term in office. One of the suits, which is before Justice Ahmed Mohammed of a Federal High Court in Abuja, was filed by two politicians, Adejumo Ajagbe and Olatoye Wahab, who are seeking an order restraining the Independent National Electoral Commission and the Attorney-General of the Federation from allowing Jonathan and Sambo to seek re-election for their respective offices in 2015. The plaintiffs had anchored their suit on the provisions of Sections 132(1), 135(2)(a) and (b), 137(1)(b), 142(1) and (2) of the Constitution and the Supreme Court decisions. The plaintiffs argued that by the virtue of constitutional provisions, the President and the Vice-President elected in the same election and sworn into office on the same date and ceremony were taken to have been elected for one single term of four years. The plaintiffs argued that by the virtue of the oaths taken by Jonathan and Sambo, following the death of President Umaru Yar’adua in 2010 and their subsequent re-election in 2011, both of them were deemed to have completed the two terms allowed by law. Copyright PUNCH.
Posted on: Sun, 26 Oct 2014 16:06:27 +0000
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