25th Jan - heavy overnight rain means a few changes to selections - I have amended the earlier article based on teh ground changes; Cheltenham: 12.40 Triumph Hurdle Trial: All eyes will be on Vicenzo Mio who bolted up at Kempton last time and is near th front of the market for the Triumph. Two weeks prior to that Kempton run, Vicenzo had run at Cheltenham and finished fourth fading up the hill, having been slightly squeezed on the turn. The expert view was that he had come on for the run but the two runs were as different a chalk and cheese. I wonder if it was the Cheltenham hill that decided his fate rather than his fitness levels. Well know today.Today he will face heavy ground as well which wont help his cause. Lining up against him are some nice sorts;Le Rocher, Kentucky Hyden and Goodwood Mirage. Le Rocher looks a staying type and Im not sure hell have the pace to win a Triumph but he has his favoured heavy ground today and if it turns into a staying contest then he can take this. Kentucky Hyden is a big sort with some scope and he came up the hill ok when beaten by Ballyglasheen here (who re-opposes here today) but Nicky Henderson would need to get some improvement out of him to take this - he will look to expose any stamina issues with Vicenzo Mio. Now onto Goodwood Mirage -a real keen-going flat sort, who handled soft ground on the flat ok. In his first run at Kempton he pulled hard, took front rank on the turn but then blundered at both the last two hurdles as AP McCoy applied some pressure. Despite that he produced a cracking turn of foot to get home in the shadow of the post.I am concerned about the heavy ground though. Weighing things up my selection would be Le Rocher though I probably wont be having a bet as we cant be sure what pace will be put into the race. 1.15 Chelt - an imponderable Cheltenham Handicap chase- there will be plenty of pace in the race and a few of these like to be prominent or lead including Annacotty and The Italian Yob who will lead the market. This may set the race up for one of the staying types to creep into that race late and take them up the hill - Im siding with Samingarry who will like these conditions. The Champ takes the ride as well which is an added bonus. No bet here though 1.50 Chelt - another difficult unfathomable handicap- every one of these has a chance - however Tap Night is the dark one here - has been tenderly ridden in races to date. I am certain hes being brought along with a certain target in mind - is today the day and is this the target? Let the market be the guide. I advise watching the market and if Tap Night is backed then we should get involved, otherwise we should give the race a swerve. 2.25 Chelt - this race centers around the 9 year old The Giant Bolster - undoubtedly top class over fences, he has had a poor time of it this season and showed nothing when put back over hurdles last time. He is prone to jumping errors at times but handles the heavy ground well. Today he is tried in a visor presumably in an attempt to light him up and keep his mind on the job. It remains to be seen whether he can regain his old form in the new headgear (placed in two Gold Cups) - if he does he wins. Rocky Creek could be the one who can take advantage if The Giant Bolster doesnt perform, though apparently he takes time to get him fit and Paul Nicholls may view this as a stepping stone on the road to Cheltenham so may still have left something to work with. Champion Court and Houblon Des Obeaux should also figure. In summary another impossible race with too many question marks for me to consider getting involved. Rocky Creek would probably eb the selection but I wont be getting involved financially. 3.00 Chelt - high class novice hurdle which I see as a match between one of my favourite novices Red Sherlock and the Willie Mulliins trained Rathvinden - preference is very much for Red Sherlock who I see as having a live chance at the festival. Red Sherlock is unbeaten over hurdles and is progressing with each race and I still believe there is a lot to come. I really rate this horse! Rathvinden is undoubtedly classy but does make the odd jumping error. I make Red Sherlock a maximum bet to take this and I also thin k he will take all the beating at the festival. Hell handle the heavy ground. Get On! Maximum bet. Betting boots on and lets shovel it on to win!! 3.35 Chelt - the champion returns - the champion staying hurdler Big Bucks returns after 420 days off - no doubt the roof will come off the main stand if he wins as his legions of fans cheer him home - the question is of course - how fit is he? Can he come back from his injury? He has three really top class hurdling rivals in opposition in the shape of Boston Bob - who has done nothing wrong and is well fancied and still seems to be improving; front running Reve de Sivola who always gives his running and will love the ground; the enigmatic At Fishers Cross who swept all before him last year but who has struggled with his jumping this year. The race all boils down to the fitness and retained ability of Big Bucks - if the injury hasnt had any lasting effects and if he is 85% fit hell win - that is a big IF though,]. Of the others Boston Bob must be respected and I still think there is much more to come from At Fishers Cross. I probably wont get involved though At Fishers Cross does appeal at 9.0 on Betfair. If he get much bigger than that then I may have a small bet. Enjoy! 4.10 Chelt - Quick Decisson landed us a max bet last week and is in good form and still improving. The issue with him is the trip. This is over further and he has the Cheltenham hill to conquer - I hate to desert him but I think with so much pace in the race it may be tough for him to land a repeat victory. Preference just goes to Citizenship who will have the race run to suit but I will not be having a bet. Doncaster 12.25 Don: Ill be having a good bet on Centasia in this her handicap debut. She is in good form and still seems to be improving. I think this race will be run to suit her and she looks on a fair mark. Well worth a good bet as will handle the sticky ground. 12.55 Don: Ive already backed our old friend Rock on Ruby ante-post for the Arkle and planned to back him today but Harry Fry has just tweeted that hell be a non-runner so I must look elsewhere today. I now think that Valdez is a cracking bet - he has impressed in his two races this season, won on heavy ground over hurdles. I make him a good bet to take this. 1.30 Don - Ill be having a win bet on Bellenos who has jumped superbly in two races this season and could be one to follow. He is improving and still looks on a reasonable mark. Upsilon Bleu looks the danger. The ground should be similar to that Bellenos faced at ascot so hopefully it wont inconvenience him. 2.05 Don - Annie Power cannot be opposed and should take this comfortably - then its on to Cheltenham where i think shes be worth her place in the Champion Hurdle. Too short to back though. 2.40 Don - really interesting novice hurdle - Times Remembered has the best form in the book and has run well in graded company. Is as game as they come. There are some hot improvers in the race though. Sausalito Sunrise has shown promise and still seems to be improving. Racing Pulse is also a most exciting prospect and is another who will figure. My money will be with Urban Hymn who I think will come for the step up in trip and who I think could be a bit special. Its a competitive race but Ill be having a small win bet on him to take this before moving on to better things. 3.15 Don -a really difficult handicap chase - Ill be having a small each way on Native Gallery who looks on a decent mark and will have more suitable conditions today. The ground cant be soft enough for him so confidence will increase with more rain. 3.50 Don- I cant find a bet in the bumper but I will be watching the well bred mare - Well Connected to see how she fares. Good luck!!!
Posted on: Sat, 25 Jan 2014 08:07:41 +0000
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