7/14/14 - Morning Update We are not under any watches or warnings yet, but will have those posted as they are issued today. During the overnight we caught some storms and showers that are just now moving out of the area. Those areas of precipitation brought 0.53 of rainfall at HQ. Today, well get up into the upper 80s for a high. We have a chance of scattered showers this morning, but the heavier rain looks to be holding off until midday. After noon, we have a much greater chance of heavy rain with damaging winds and hail. While a tornado cannot be ruled out, we are not currently shown as having any sort of tornado probability for today by the NWS. Current rainfall projections for the day are between 0.5-0.6 with locally higher amounts possible. This evening and tonight, we have a chance of heavy rain through about 9 PM with a chance at more scattered activity thereafter through the night. Lows will drop to around 70 degrees. Total rainfall projections currently sit between 0.3-0.4 with locally higher amounts possible and a very real possibility to push higher toward 0.75, if the heavier rain stalls in the area. Tomorrow, were headed up into the mid to upper 80s again for a high. We have a chance at showers and thundershowers in the morning with heavier activity likely pushing back into the area in the afternoon. Again, damaging winds and hail could accompany this heavier rain activity. Total daytime rainfall is currently projected between 0.8-1.1 with locally higher amounts possible. Tomorrow evening and overnight, we will retain a chance at heavier storm activity through midnight with a chance of lingering showers or thundershowers through the early morning Wednesday. Lows will drop down into the low 60s. Total evening and overnight rainfall is currently projected between 0.15-0.25 with locally higher amounts possible. As you can see, the baseline rainfall projections are showing us with at least 2 of rain, not including what we just received during the overnight last night. However, with the intensity that we could achieve out of these storms over the next two days, I would be very surprised to not see those locally higher amounts become a reality in many places across the county. Therefore, we need to be very mindful of the potential for flooding. Please do not venture into high water on foot or in a vehicle. It is not worth your life or the lives of rescue personnel. Additionally, as the stronger areas of storm activity move through, please take shelter and do not risk being out. Last Wednesday when I was on my way home from my camp, I was caught in that heavy cell that moved through while I was near trees. I had a tree fall across the road about 30 feet in front of my car and then was almost hit by a large fallen branch blowing into the roadway after I turned around. Luckily, I was going quite slowly and was able to get stopped and then was able to safely wait until the worst passed by before proceeding again. However, it was one of the most frightening things I have ever experienced in a car and could have been much worse, if they had actually fallen on my vehicle instead of in front. It simply is not worth the risk to go out in severe storm conditions, if you do not absolutely have to. If you are caught on the roadway in a severe cell, consider pulling over in a safe location until the intensity dies down and you are able to safely proceed again. I will be back with radar updates as needed and we will have the watches and warnings posted as they are issued. Additionally, I will be back this evening with an updated outlook for tomorrow to provide updated timings and projections based on the model data available later today. Stay safe and have a great day!!! -Pete
Posted on: Mon, 14 Jul 2014 09:33:13 +0000
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