A few more thought this morning. (Tim Hedrick) As you have probably seen on morning new programs or from this Facebook page, a portion of the WKRC-TV viewing area has been placed in a High Risk Area for severe weather. That area includes folks from Cincinnati to the west, everyone else remains in a moderate risk area. High Risk Areas do not appear at the drop of a hat. The meteorologists at the Severe Storms Forecast Center are excellent at what they do. It is there passion in life to determine where sever storms will break out. So again, this is not hype, this is the best of the best issuing guidance to help you better understand the severity of the weather threat. Over the years I have come to understand their process and their guidance is completely justified. You dont want to display high risk areas 3 days in advance, you want to build to that point as computer models continue to suggest areas of damaging winds and tornadoes. While you may not care about the science it might help if I tried to relate the situation in terms you might be able to visualize. Here are a few of the parameters discussed by the Storms Prediction Center along with a few side notes: -THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW-this is like a head cold going to the flu in an afternoon. There is very little warning and the center of the storm strengthens incredibly quickly-that is beginning to happen now. COLD FRONT TRAILING S AND SW FROM THE LOW...NOW EXTENDING THROUGH NW MO AND FAR ERN KS...SHOULD ACCELERATE E/SEWD THROUGH THE DAY-Accelerate is the key word here...Fast moving, accelerating cold fronts usually are far more event provoking, they have greater association with damaging wind events....would it hurt more if someone slapped you or just slowly brushed the side of your face? COMBINATION OF INCREASING ASCENT/MID-LVL COOLING WITH THE JET STREAK-The jet stream is a fast moving column of air aloft which has a direct correlation to the type and amount of severe weather that an area might receive. INCREASING ASCENT in this case will be created late this afternoon and evening as the jet, sort of, splits across the area. This creates a chimney effect for thunderstorms. It lets the thunderstorms grow at a very rapid pace in the vertical dimension. MID-LVL COOLING. It is so important to remember that our atmosphere is 3-dimensional! It just doent happen on the horizontal plane. So...not only will we have a tremendous temperature difference from east to west across the front but we will have a temperature difference from the surface to the sky. Both are important for strong thunderstorm development. CONTINUED LOW-LVL MOISTURE INFLOW /WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60 F-Theres that word, dew point. For the last 25 years I have been telling you that the dew point is an indication as to how much moisture there is in any area of the atmosphere. If you have a high dew point there is plenty of moisture available. A 60 degree dew point in November is high. Moisture is fuel for thunderstorms. Without gas your car stalls, without moisture, thunderstorms fade and die. WILL YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...BEGINNING IN FAR ERN MO...AND THEN CONTINUING ENE ACROSS MUCH OF IL...IND...FAR SRN WI...SRN MI AND WRN OH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.-Ok, supercells are the mother of all thunderstorms! A breeding ground is being set up for supercell thunderstorms to our west and southwest and their movement will be towards Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Toledo. A supercell is generally a loner thunderstorm. It builds off the unstable atmosphere around it and does not like interference from others. A supercells intent is to create the perfect conditions so that it might spin up a tornado. In some cases, a strong tornado. Sorry about that...it is tough to shut it off sometimes. I should really bring these thoughts to a classroom at UC or NKU. So....what about timing? This can be tricky because of an accelerating cold front and thunderstorms that like to form in advance of the main line. While the main line, which has not developed yet, should arrive sometime around 7pm in Cincinnati all of you should be prepared to take quick actions between 3pm and 9pm. We will hope that the atmosphere has difficulty reconjuring instability for late day thunderstorms after the rain this morning...but if not we are ready and we urge you to be as well.
Posted on: Sun, 17 Nov 2013 15:42:35 +0000
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