A very important paper by James Hansen et al was published by PLOS One today. Title: Scientific Prescription to Avoid Dangerous Climate Change to Protect Young People, Future Generations, and Nature Once the weblink from PLOS is available, I will post it below. In the meantime, you can read this paper using the link: ourchildrenstrust.org/sites/default/files/CasePaper.pdf Some key findings : -If we stay on the energy pathway we are on, Extraction of the excess CO2 from the air likely would be implausible and warming of the ocean and resulting climate impacts would be practically irreversible.” - There is a need for a carbon fee - “We have a planetary climate crisis that requires urgent change to our energy and carbon pathway to avoid dangerous consequences for young people and other life on Earth.” -“ We conclude that the target for total fossil fuel emissions needs to be about 500 GtC, which should prevent global temperature from rising much above the Holocene range. Given that emissions through 2012 are already ~370 GtC (374 GtC with gas flaring included), such a target is exceedingly ambitious, requiring annual reduction of global emissions of about 6%/year.” - “Anthropogenic emission of 1000 GtC, which has been associated with a target of limiting global warming to 2°C [208, 209], is likely to be a disaster scenario, based on our analysis. “ -“ Limiting emissions to either 500 GtC or 1000 GtC requires that most remaining fossil fuels be left in the ground (Fig. 1). Yet governments and industry are rushing into expanded use of fossil fuels, including unconventional fossil fuels such as tar sands, tar shale, shale gas extracted by hydrofracking, and exploitation of methane hydrates. “ -“ Ultimately, however, human-made climate change is more a matter of morality than a legal issue. Broad public support is probably needed to achieve the changes needed to phase out fossil fuel emissions. As with the issue of slavery and civil rights, public recognition of the moral dimensions of human-made climate change may be needed to stir the publics conscience to the point of action. “ - Our analysis shows that a set of actions exists with a good chance of averting dangerous climate change, if the actions begin now. However, we also show that time is running out. Unless a human tipping point is reached soon, with implementation of effective policy actions, large irreversible climate changes will become unavoidable. “
Posted on: Tue, 03 Dec 2013 19:38:59 +0000
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