AMISOM: The predicament of AMISOM is uncertain if the leaders of the TFG it had protected for years fall apart and fight to tear each other to the finish. In that fateful day, The UN and AMISOM have nothing left to say or do unless to throw the gauntlet and leave home. The IGAD countries will remain aghast to such unpredictable development. The well-wishing donor countries will remain disappointed for decades to come and turn their backs to Somalia forever. Will UN condemn itself and learn from its mistakes for future interventions in order to address other hot spots in the 3rd world countries? Perhaps that is the day that Somalis will agree to compromise and the do the right thing where UN failed to address for decades…! The Preliminary Conflict The heat of the political infighting in Mogadishu is already in the offing, and soon, there may be isolated incidents, or all front armed clashes between the two Sheriffs, while employing the armed wings of respective clan militia and local community leaders. The war will take clannish aspect, and will be hard to predict where it will lead. If Sherif Sakin wins, Sherif Ahmed has nowhere else to retreat among his clan loyalties; he will opt out for political asylum. But if Sherif Sakin loses the challenge, then he may fall back to Bay and Bakool strongholds in order to reinforce his military muscle and comeback to finish off Sherif Ahmed where he left. In anyway, Somalia will fall back again into decades of political insolvency in the hands of the UN and the supervision of neighboring EAGAD countries. Why not follow the simple fact of Somali proverb that says: The milk/water container is weaved from the base. Allegorically, the political solution for Somalia is in the hands of its people. They have the traditional tools to do so, and to that regard, the next convention should be held in Somalia, no matter where and how long will it take to materialize.
Posted on: Fri, 16 Aug 2013 13:31:54 +0000
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