AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS 210 PM SST WED JAN 1 2014 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE CONTINUES TO POUR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES OVER THE ISLANDS. RAOB FROM THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS AN UNSTABLE PROFILE. MODELS ARE KEEPING THE SPCZ OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. ASCAT SWATH FROM THE MORNING REVEALED BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH STRONGER CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH OVER TONGA AND NIUE. MODELS ARE HINTING IN DEVELOPING A WEAK LOW OVER SAVAII TONIGHT WHILE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AND REMAIN BREEZY AND GUSTY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO GENTLE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE WILL MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDING TO THESE ANALYSIS AND OUTPUTS. .LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SPCZ WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE NEW WEEK. A RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE FAR NORTHEAST WHILE SLOWLY APPROACH NEAR EAST OF THE MANUA DURING THE LONG TERM. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE SPCZ FAR NORTH OF FIJI ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER WALLIS AND FUTUNA BEFORE DESCENDING SOUTH SOUTHWEST TOWARDS FIJI ON SUNDAY. WILL KEEP THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR NOW WHILE MONITORING ANY LATE DEVELOPMENTS. && .MARINE... SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT COASTAL WATERS AND SHORELINES THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING 6 TO 8 FT ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON FRIDAY MORNING. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HSA IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH FACING SHORES. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT.
Posted on: Thu, 02 Jan 2014 07:17:53 +0000
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