AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 341 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2013 .DISCUSSION... DISTURBANCE WILL WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO... MAINLY THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. FARTHER WEST... DRIER AIR WILL WORK EAST THROUGH THAT PART OF THE STATE AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES THERE. OTHERWISE... IT WILL BE A VERY WARM AND WINDY DAY. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH... BUT WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP LIMITING MIXING CENTRAL/EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING WIND FIELD FARTHER WEST... DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANY ADVISORY. COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH RED RIVER COUNTIES NEAR 80 DEGREES. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS MILD TEMPS REMAIN EVEN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE MILD CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA TO APPROACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS. HOWEVER... THESE CONDITIONS MAY NOT LAST MORE THAN COUPLE OF HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION AND WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE WX WATCH AT THIS POINT. MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MODELS DEPICT A LARGER SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER... OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES WITH ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WRT TO TIMING... PRECIP AND JUST HOW COLD THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE. SO CONFIDENCE BEYOND WEDNESDAY REMAIN VERY LOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF RAIN STARTING ON THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND CONT WITH A COOLING TREND. WILL NOT GO QUITE AS COLD AS LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST AND WAIT TO SEE IF THEY MAINTAIN THE LATEST TREND... WHICH WOULD BE TO BRING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 56 70 34 / 20 0 0 0 HOBART OK 78 52 71 31 / 20 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 81 58 79 36 / 20 0 0 0 GAGE OK 76 42 65 26 / 10 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 73 52 66 33 / 30 0 0 0 DURANT OK 75 64 79 43 / 30 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...
Posted on: Sat, 16 Nov 2013 11:53:12 +0000
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