Before the discussion begins, let me just say that the precipitaiton types are highly highly uncertain; so, continue to check back through the rest of the week and weekend for updated outlooks. Now, with that out of the way, lets begin our discussion this evening. QUICK SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST (weather nerdy detailed discussion below): Tonight, sleet may mix with sleet for our south and eastern zones. The precipitation is forecasted to be pretty light and temperature profiles in this area will be hovering around freezing; so, no impacts from sleet are anticipated. Saturday, will continue with a 20% chance of rain showers during the day drying out by Saturday Night. Sunday: Rain will be possible in the afternoon and transition to sleet/snow/rain by the overnight. Accumulations will not be discussed until late weekend and into the early weekend. Now for the detailed discussion. Let me just start off by saying that this weekends forecast is extremely difficult and uncertain as model guidance are disagreeing in some areas. For tonight, a very weak shortwave will kick into the area during the overnight. Model data shows no QPF (accumulated precipitation) to come out of this but the HI-RES guidance shows a chance of a few showers possibly mixed with sleet. The precipitation is expected to be on the light side and surface temperatures are forecasted to be right at 32 maybe a degree cooler so impacts are not anticipated at this time. SATURDAY: Another shortwave will kick east from the far western U.S. Winds will turn south on Saturday with temperature rebound in the upper 40s. This models have consecutively shown this shortwave to be weaker and will continue with a 20% chance of showers through the day Saturday. Saturday night should be dry before another strong cold front moves into the area. This is when the data starts to disagree. The front will bring dropping temperatures through Sunday to near freezing by late evening as precipitation starts during the day. GFS Parallel is colder and starts the precipitation sooner while the ECMWF is a little warmer showing more light sleet rather than snow. Canadian shows the precipitation not starting till Monday morning and keeps temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer than EURO/GFS Parallel. What Model to go with? Believe that the Canadian is not timing the precipitation correctly and is also showing too warm of surface temperatures. This forecast is a blend of PGFS/EURO 12Z runs that shows precipitation starting off as light rain sunday afternoon transitioning to rain/sleet mix by sunday evening and then sleet/snow mix during the overnight. The precipitation looks to stay light right now so we dont currently see any major winter storm but we will have to closely monitor the disturbance on Sunday because if it were to become stronger, then we could have a bigger issue. We dont see that at this time but will be watching. After this disturbance leaves, temperatures will slowly become warmer through Wednesday of next week. After mid next week, early indications are for potentially another cold front but we will not be discussing that for a while. FORECASTER: Christian
Posted on: Thu, 13 Nov 2014 00:29:44 +0000
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