Category 2 TC Lusi currently lies to the far west of Nadi over waters just to the east of Port Vila. It is evident from movement overnight that the track of TC Lusi is going to stay closer to Vanuatu than Fiji and the central and southern islands of Vanuatu are expected to experience the major impacts of TC Lusi. With the centre of Lusi now at the same latitude as Nadi any southward component to the cyclones movement will start to take TC Lusi away from the populated areas of Fiji. At 6AM the centre of TC Lusi was near 17.5S 170.0E or about 800km due west of Nadi. Its movement overnight has been southeast at about 15kmph and currently winds of storm force are being experienced close to the central eye region averaging 95kmph and gusting 135kmph. Computer models point to continued intensification on a southeast track taking the cyclone well south and west of Fiji tonight and tomorrow morning. The risk of this system directly impacting on Fiji (i.e. making landfall on Fiji) is extremely low to nil. Increasing cloud is expected today and western parts of Fiji will start to experience heavy rain later this evening and overnight. Currently weather is quite fine over most places this morning and hence rivers and streams are relatively low. So when rain does start to get heavy later on it will take some time for rivers and streams to rise, and with the cyclone moving fairly quickly now prolonged rain sufficient to cause major river flooding is unlikely. However localised flash flooding of streams and drains is expected. North westerly winds will start to become strong and gusty in the west tonight as the cyclone passes to the southwest however winds are not expected to be particularly damaging and provided loose items are moved indoors or properly secured and weaker structures are well tied down minimal damage is expected. Winds and rain should start easing Thursday morning and slowly taper off through the day. Weather likely to stay cloudy with some showers on Friday also. While the west will experience the worst of the weather the remainder of the country will stay cloudy later today and tomorrow with a few showers and fresh gusty northwest winds. No particularly hazardous weather is expected away from the west of the country except those places exposed to large northerly swells currently affecting the north of the country (see below). Once TC Lusi moves away we then start to look at other systems in the region. Could associated with the remnant depression that was TC Hadi near the coast of Queensland a few days ago is now evident in the Coral Sea. This system is moving east towards Vanuatu and may re-develop in to a cyclone again in coming days. At this time it poses no threat to Fiji but it will be watched closely. Another depression to the northeast just east of Samoa is forecast to develop in the next 4 or 5 days and move southwest towards Tonga. It also poses no threat to Fiji but will also be watched closely. All in the entire region remains very active with monsoonal gales across the deep tropical ocean region north of Rotuma and the Solomon islands. Large northerly swells will affect Fiji over the next week or so as the waves from this area of gales propagates out of the area towards Fiji and Tonga. Those people in the Yasawas, northern Vanua Levu and nearby small islands should be aware of the risk posed by heavy swells in coming days, especially in the next 24 hours as TC Lusi passes by.
Posted on: Wed, 12 Mar 2014 06:56:07 +0000
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