Courtesy of NWSFO Slidell, LA - Edited for Tropical Info - ALL EYES WILL REMAIN ON THE TROPICS. THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS WITH A MID/UPPER TROUGH PERSISTING OVER/NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING TO A SHEAR AXIS AND LIFTING NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHAT TYPE OF TROPICAL SYSTEM WE WILL BE DEALING WITH WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHAT DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...AND THIS WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. FOR NOW...THE MODELS HAVE SOME POSSIBLE TRUTHS IN ALL OF THEM...AS THERE MAY BE A SPLIT OF ENERGY WITH A MID LEVEL LOW AND POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW HEADING ON A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE ANOTHER MID LEVEL LOW AND POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MORE NORTHWARD MOVING SCENARIO SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A HYBRID TROPICAL/EXTRA TROPICAL LOW SINCE THE SYSTEM WOULD BE INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SOME OF THE DRIER COOLER AIRMASS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE KEY FACTOR HERE IS UNCERTAINTY...BUT BASED ON THE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN FIRST AND FOREMOST...THEN LOOKING AT ALL THE MORE RELIABLE MODEL TRACKS...THERE IS DEFINITE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO DIRECTLY IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z GFS...ECMWF...OR A BLEND OF THE TWO APPEAR TO BE A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY. THIS BRINGS HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BACK TO COASTAL SECTIONS BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WINDS GETTING A LITTLE BREEZY AS WELL. ONSHORE WINDS COULD START TO BRING TIDES UP OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE SUBJECT TO MAJOR REVISION OF COURSE IF A STRONGER TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPS. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL RESUME AFTER THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES INLAND/AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. 22/TD
Posted on: Thu, 15 Aug 2013 04:35:10 +0000