DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0322 AM CDT MON JUL 01 2013 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL AZ...FAR W-CNTRL NM... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...BECOMING CENTERED OVER NE NV/SW ID BY 12Z TUESDAY. UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WWD AS WELL...CENTERING OVER IL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRESSES...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE-DERIVED PW DATA AND REGIONAL SOUNDINGS REVEAL PW VALUES OVER AN INCH EXTEND FROM SRN CA EWD ACROSS SRN AZ AND SRN NM AND INTO ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE. THIS TREND SHOULD PERSIST WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE WRN GREAT BASIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST...WRN GREAT BASIN...AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE NRN GREAT BASIN. ADDITIONALLY...POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WRN GREAT BASIN...AZ...AND CNTRL/SRN CA. ...CNTRL AZ...FAR W-CNTRL NM... WHILE TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...THE AREA ACROSS CNTRL AZ EWD INTO FAR W-CNTRL NM /ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM EWD INTO THE GILA NATIONAL FOREST/ IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF DRY TSTMS. RECENT SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THIS REGION BETWEEN THE GREATER MOISTURE ACROSS SRN AZ/NM AND THE DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIMILAR FEATURE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS AREA IS ALSO ALONG THE ERN/SERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL NLY FLOW EDGING INTO THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RESULTANT STORM MOTIONS AROUND 20 TO 25 KT. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 3 KM AND SURFACE RH VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT. ALL OF THESE FACTORS COMBINED INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST SCATTERED DRY TSTM COVERAGE AND A CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN DELINEATED AS A RESULT. ...MUCH OF THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN... ISOLATED DRY TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS TO THE N AND NW OF THE CRITICAL AREA. THE REDUCED COVERAGE IS PRIMARILY A RESULT OF LESS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAN AREAS FARTHER S AND SE. MOST OF THE TSTMS IN THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY...ALTHOUGH SLOW STORM MOTIONS...PARTICULARLY OVER AND AROUND THE CASCADES...MAY RESULT IN SOME WETTING RAINS DESPITE THE VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
Posted on: Mon, 01 Jul 2013 11:21:21 +0000
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