Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest Leading Off: MI-Sen: Despite the way the cycles shaped up, the first Senate campaign committee to cry Uncle! is actually the NRSC. Republicans are cutting an $850,000 TV ad reservation for the final two weeks of the election in Michigan, where theyd been trying to help Terri Lynn Land. Of course the NRSC is spinning this as anything but a sign of weakness, pointing out Lands cash advantage over Democrat Gary Peters (true, thanks to her self-funding) and the fact that other outside groups are advertising here (also true, but are they really going to make up the shortfall? maybe theyll even follow suit). Heres something thats absolutely indisputable, though: Thats a chart showing Peters net margin over Land in all polls conducted in the last nine months or so, with the green line through the middle showing the overall trend. Anything above the red center line indicates a positive result for Democrats. The movement in Peters direction is unmistakable, and no amount of GOP spin can undermine it. **A quick message from Salsa Labs: The point of social media is the conversation — not simply talking and not just listening. By using the right technology, you can not only track whats being said and whos saying it, but you can identify the top influencers directly and capture all that information back to your organizations database. To learn more about social listening, download the white paper, Dont be a Narcissistic Nonprofit: Be a Conversationalist, to find out: what social listening is and why it matters, what tool or tools can best help you with social listening, and how to best use a CRM to maximize your engagement with your supporters. Download the whitepaper today. 3Q Fundraising: CO-Sen: Cory Gardner (R) $4.35 million raised, $3.3 million on hand NC-Sen: Kay Hagan (D-inc) $4.9 million raised, $2 million on hand Senate (September) NRSC (R) $15.5 million raised CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D-inc) $1,404,000 raised, $133,000 spent, $23,636,000 on hand; Neel Kashkari (R) $1,804,000 raised, $568,000 spent, $680,000 on hand FL-Gov: (Sept. 20-26) Charlie Crist (D) $1 million raised, $8 million on hand; Rick Scott (R-inc) $2.6 million raised, $10 million on hand GA-Gov: Jason Carter (D) $3 million raised, $2.8 million on hand TX-Gov: (July 1-Sept. 26) Wendy Davis (D) $6.8 million on hand; Greg Abbott (R) $7.8 million raised, $30 million on hand Senate: GA-Sen, Gov: Public Policy Polling returns to the Peach State for the first time since July, and they find small but steady leads for Republicans in the Senate and gubernatorial races. In the Senate contest, Republican David Perdue leads Democrat Michelle Nunn 45-43, with Libertarian Amanda Swafford at 8. Most recent polls have found a similar margin. When Swaffords supporters are asked to pick between the two major candidates Perdues edge increases slightly to 48-45. The undecideds report voting for Obama and Romney in roughly equal numbers, so its unlikely that they can dramatically shift the race. Nunn is slightly more popular than Perdue, posting a 41-42 favorable rating compared to Perdues 39-43. But with Obamas approval rating at 41-54 here, Perdue doesnt necessarily need to be beloved to win. Note that this poll was conducted over the weekend just after Perdues comments embracing outsourcing became public. Nunns campaign has just started to hammer Perdue on outsourcing, so most persuadable voters may not have heard about the story yet. According to PPP, the GOP seems better positioned in the gubernatorial contest. Republican incumbent Nathan Deal leads Democrat Jason Carter 46-41, with Libertarian Andrew Hunt taking 4. This is a bit better for Deal than most polls have found recently, but not dramatically different. However, this is one of only a few polls showing Carter doing worse than Nunn. When Hunts supporters are asked to choose between Perdue and Carter, Perdues lead turns to 50-45. Neither candidate is super popular: Deals approval rating is 43-42 while Carters favorable rating is 39-36. The undecideds here are a bit more Democratic-leaning than in the Senate contest, but there dont appear to be enough of them to give Carter the lead on their own. As weve noted before, both Democrats have a tough task. In Georgia if no candidate takes more than 50 percent in November, the top-two contenders advance to a runoff. Most polling in both races shows the Libertarians taking enough support to force a runoff. Frustratingly, the gubernatorial runoff would be in December while the Senate race would be in January. PPP did ask voters if they would show up for the runoffs: 87 percent said they would definitely vote in the December contest and 85 percent they would definitely vote in January. Of course, its no secret that voters are often very poor at predicting their own future behavior. Democratic turnout has tended to disproportionately drop for irregularly scheduled elections and getting Democratic voters to turn out in two different months may be difficult. If Carter loses in December, it could be even tougher to get dispirited Democrats to show up for Nunn in January. It is possible for either or both Democrats to win a runoff if it comes down to it, but their best bet is to win outright in November and unfortunately thats not happening right now. KS-Sen: Despite Sen. Pat Roberts deep dive in the polls, national Republicans dont seem all that eager to save him. A new report from Dylan Scott at TPM quotes several GOP operatives who are agog that neither the NRSC nor the Koch brothers have come in with big bucks to bail out the incumbent. Its not like the DSCC is spending on Greg Ormans behalf, either, but then again, he probably doesnt want their help since it would only undermine his independent image—and anyhow, hes the one leading in the polls. While Republican chances of a complete Senate takeover even without Kansas have improved of late, do they really want to risk the possibility that itll all hinge on Orman? Polling: Get yer polls here! Get yer red hot polls here! MI-Sen: Glengariff: Gary Peters (D): 44, Terri Lynn Land (R): 35 (Sept.: 47-37 Peters) MI-Sen: MRG: Peter: 47, Land: 36 (Aug.: 47-40 Peters) MN-Sen: SurveyUSA: Al Franken (D-inc): 55, Mike McFadden (R): 37 (Aug.: 51-42 Franken) VA-Sen: Christopher Newport Univ.: Mark Warner (D-inc): 51, Ed Gillespie (R): 39 (Sept.: 53-31 Warner) No, I dont particularly believe SurveyUSA showing Al Franken up 18 points (his leads more like 10). SUSA was all over the place in 2008, as you can see in both their earlier and later charts. In fact, in their very first poll, when the prospect of the former SNL funnyman running for Senate was barely a twinkle in Lorne Michaels eye, they had Saudi lobbyist Norm Coleman up 57-35! So this kind of thing is nothing new for SUSA, but hey, if theyre gonna be off, at least its to the good for Franken. Gubernatorial: Polling: Tuesday brought us a big serving of gubernatorial polls: FL-Gov: Øptimus (R): Charlie Crist (D): 40, Rick Scott (R-inc): 39, Adrian Wyllie (Lib): 13 (Sept.: 41-40-11 Crist) FL-Gov: PPP (D): Crist: 45, Scott: 43, Wyllie: 8 (Sept.: 42-39-8 Crist) (conducted for Center for American Progress) FL-Gov: SurveyUSA: Crist: 44, Scott: 42, Wyllie: 6 (Sept.: 46-40-8 Crist) IL-Gov: We Ask America: Pat Quinn (D-inc): 44, Bruce Rauner (R): 40, Chad Grimm (Lib): 6 (Sept.: 44-41-6 Rauner) (conducted for Reboot Illinois) MA-Gov: YouGov: Martha Coakley (D): 48, Charlie Baker (R): 44 (Sept.: 46-45 Baker) (conducted for UMass Amherst & WBZ) MI-Gov: Glengariff: Rick Snyder (R-inc): 45, Mark Schauer (D): 37 (Sept.: 44-42 Snyder) MI-Gov: MRG: Snyder: 46, Schauer: 41 (July: 45-44 Snyder). NH-Gov: UNH: Maggie Hassan (D-inc): 46, Walt Havenstein (R): 36 (Aug.: 49-32 Hassan) PA-Gov: Quinnipiac: Tom Wolf (D): 55, Tom Corbett (R-inc): 38 (Sept.: 59-35 Wolf) The one concerning thing here for Democrats is that the fortunes of their two Michigan candidates seem to be diverging. While Gary Peters keeps improving in the Senate race, Mark Schauer has apparently slipped in his quest to unseat Gov. Rick Snyder. The chart below illustrates the trendlines in the net polling margins in each race: For a while there recently, both Peters and Schauer were climbing upward at the same time, and Schauer had very nearly pulled into a tie. But of late, hes hit a bit of a swoon, perhaps because Snyders big fundraising advantage has given him an edge on the airwaves. (It doesnt help that Mike Bloomberg is planning to spend another $2.3 million on Snyders behalf.) Hopefully the DGA can make up the shortfall, and hopefully Peters can drag Schauer across the finish line, but a split decision is a definite possibility. House: IA-01: Blergh. Republican Rod Blum has a new internal from The Polling Company, and its a good bit better than his last one. This time, Blum is actually up 40-39 on Democrat Pat Murphy; back in August, Murphy had a 40-35 lead. Murphys own internal, taken at the same time as Blums first, had him up 51-40, so well see if he responds similarly again. The DCCC has sent out a couple of press releases dinging Blum (someone theyd previously ignored) in the last couple of days, but Republicans havent spent any outside money to try to pick up this light-blue, Democratic held-seat. Thats probably the biggest tell of all. LA-05: Republican pollster Cygnal has an independent poll of the November jungle primary in this North Louisiana seat, and they find a little good news for scandal-tarred Republican Rep. Vance McAlister. In the all-party primary Democrat Jamie Mayo leads with 19 percent, with McAlister at 17. Not far behind is businessman and Duck Dynasty relative Zach Dasher at 13, with physician Ralph Abraham taking 11 (both are Republicans). The rest of the Republican candidates are in single digits. In the very likely event that no one win a majority of the vote in November, the top-two vote-getters advance to a December runoff. This isnt exactly a secure lead for the congressman, but with so many Republicans splitting the anti-McAlister vote it could be enough to get him to the runoff. This is a heavily Republican district, and any Republican would rather face Mayo in December than another Republican. If McAlister can make it to a runoff with Mayo hes in good shape. There hasnt been too much polling here until now though. A mid-September poll JMC Analytics and Polling survey for Abraham that we missed showed Abraham edging McAlister 17-13 for the second place runoff spot, with Mayo in first at 22. Glascock also periodically surveys this contest but infuriatingly they never allow respondents to indicate that theyre undecided, so its hard to take them seriously. In any case it looks pretty likely (though not assured) that Mayo will advance to the runoff but its unclear if McAlister will join him. MA-06: After a couple of polls (including one GOP internal) found Republican Richard Tisei with a small lead against Democrat Seth Moulton in Massachusetts 6th District, the House Majority PAC decided to respond with numbers from Garin-Hart-Yang showing Moulton ahead 43-33. Interestingly, independent Chris Stockwell is taking a huge 11 percent of the vote, and its pretty impossible to pin down his leanings. Politics1 calls him a centrist activist, while his own platform is almost comically vague and pox-on-both-parties-ish. Jack Fitzpatrick thinks Stockwell will hurt Moulton more; its not quite clear why, though Moulton himself considered an independent candidacy last cycle, so there might be some stylistic overlap. Tisei, however, has also touted his centrism, so its sort of a strange race with a real pileup in the middle. But if Fitzpatrick is right (and GHY is right, too), then these numbers are good news for Moulton, because as Stockwell fades, hell benefit. Other Races: NV State Senate: Democrats currently hold a razor-thin 11-10 majority in the Nevada Senate, and both parties are spending big to come out on top there (the Assembly is considered safe for Team Blue). Both sides pretty much agree that control of the chamber will come down to two neighboring Las Vegas-area seats, SD-08 and SD-09. Republicans hold the open SD-08 and freshman Democratic state Sen. Justin Jones is running for re-election is SD-09. The GOP needs to win both to win back the Senate after six years of Democratic control. According to the Republican pollster The Tarrance Group, the Republicans are positioned to flip both. In SD-08, Republican Patricia Farley has a wide 43-36 lead over Democratic Assemblywoman Marilyn Dondero Loop. In SD-09, Republican Becky Harris leads Jones 45-42. SD-08 narrowly went for Romney 50-49, while Obama won SD-09 54-44. However, Jones ran far behind Obama in 2012, winning only 50.4 to 49.7, and he cant count on his seats blue lean to save him. Weve looked at Tarrances (albeit limited) record in the past and found they overestimated Republicans in 2012, sometimes by quite a bit. In Nevadas 4th Congressional District they did particularly badly, low-balling Democrat Steven Horsfords margin of victory by 18 points. Still, given how high the stakes are in both state Senate contests, it would be a relief if Democrats released better numbers. Grab Bag: Demographics: Its become conventional wisdom that growth in the nations major cities is disproportionately driven by migration by 20-something creative-class types, fueling disproportionate population growth and economic growth (and expensive regentrification) in urban cores while the rest of the country languishes. But now we have a study (by the Center for Community Progress) that quantifies just how much thats happening, and where in particular its happening. The findings pretty much confirm the conventional wisdom: the heaviest growth among college-educated 25-34-year-olds is strongest in the glamorous magnet cities: San Francisco, Washington DC, and Seattle top the list. The study also looks at two other groupings, the sunbelt cities and legacy cities, and finds that some of them -- generally ones with a critical mass of universities and other research institutions, like Atlanta (from the sunbelt category) and Pittsburgh (from the legacy category) -- are outpacing some of the other cities thought of as magnets (like Chicago and Boston). From a political perspective, this isnt necessarily helpful; it mostly sees the concentration of likely Democratic voters into the already-blue states. However, growth in Denver helps explain Colorados move toward light-blue status, and, maybe most importantly for 2016, the strong growth in Atlanta signals Georgias steady move toward swing state status. Early Voting: Were still four weeks from Election Day, but turnout expert Michael McDonald calculates that about 152,000 ballots have already been cast—and millions more have been requested. The action for now is concentrated in a few states like Florida, North Carolina and Iowa. We can track instructive patterns in each using the statistics that thanks to the website McDonald tracks on his website, Elect Project. 2.3 million Floridians are now being sent an absentee ballot, a staggering number thats partly explained by a new state law that requires that voters who requested an absentee ballot in the previous cycle be automatically sent one this cycle as well. The GOP historically does well in absentee voting in Florida, so it registers as good news for Democrats that they only trail 42 percent to 39 among those who will be receiving a ballot. But its hard to know what to make of those numbers since that many voters have been sent ballots automatically. The big question is: Can Democrats get voters who tend to skip midterms to cast a ballot now that they have received one in the mail? In the Tar Heel State Republicans have a large lead among mail ballots that have already been returned (50 percent of 54,558, versus 30 percent for Democrats), so North Carolina Republicans have historically done well in mail voting. (In 2010, they cast 44 percent of mail ballots versus 35 percent for Democrats.) But for now registered Democrats have requested more absentee ballots (41 percent of a total of 27,232, versus 36 for Republicans)—and theyve cast more as well. If this trend holds, it would testify to the strength of the Democratic ground game in a state with a crucial Senate race. In Iowa, more than 84,000 voters have already cast their ballot, and were still one month away from Election Day! For the first few weeks, registered Democratic voters were requesting absentee ballots at a much greater rate than were registered Republicans, but the GOP has significantly picked-up its efforts. For instance, 54 percent of the absentee ballot requests that were processed Monday came from registered Republicans, versus just 28 percent from registered Democrats. As youd expect, the overall gap between the parties has been shrinking as a result: Of the nearly 240,000 absentee ballots that have now been requested, 47 percent have come from Democrats and 33 percent from Republicans (a week ago it was 52 percent to 28 percent). Importantly this same pattern—a large Democratic lead early that progressively shrinks—has been seen in the past. House: Some interesting stats, courtesy the University of Minnesota: Thirty-eight congressional districts do not have a Republican nominee on the ballot plus 35 without a Democrat. The absence of a major party nominee in 73 U.S. House races this cycle is the largest number since 2002 when 81 districts did not have major party competition on Election Day. That number dropped to 66 in 2004, then 55 in 2006, 56 in 2008, 31 in 2010, and 47 in 2012 after redistricting. Id love to see numbers going back even further. Redistricting: In potentially big redistricting news, a three-judge federal panel has struck down Virginias congressional map, siding with plaintiffs who argued that Republicans in the legislature illegally packed too many African-Americans into Democratic Rep. Bobby Scotts black-majority 3rd District. If lawmakers are forced to redraw the lines (or the court does it for them), it could make surrounding districts, all of which are held by Republicans, bluer, though none of this would matter until next cycle. And a big twist here is that Democrats now control the governorship, so Terry McAuliffe can either force legislative Republicans to compromise or stonewall until the courts take over. Its also not clear if the case will be appealed to the Supreme Court; McAuliffe and Democratic Attorney General Mark Herring would surely prefer not to appeal, but its possible that GOP legislators might have a say here, too. Ads & Independent Expenditures: AK-Sen: The NRSC continues to portray Democratic Sen. Mark Begich as a wasteful spender. Republican rival Dan Sullivan also hits Begich on energy. CO-Sen: The NRSC continues to accuse Democratic Sen. Mark Udall of running a single-issue campaign, while not caring about Colorado voters. Republican rival Cory Gardner again argues that Udall ignored the threat of terrorism. On the Democratic side, the SEIU goes after Gardner in a Spanish ad. GA-Sen: That didnt take long at all. A few days ago, a 2005 deposition emerged where Republican David Perdue declared he had spent most of his career outsourcing. Sure enough, Democrat Michelle Nunn has the first of what will almost certainly be many ads hitting Deal over this revelation. For his part, Perdues narrator accuses Nunn of being desperate before tying her to Obama. Perdue then appears and talks about creating jobs. IA-Sen: Republican Joni Ernst has a pretty generic positive ad, while the NRA has the Iowa version of one of their cookie-cutter ads. KY-Sen: The DSCC argues that Republican Mitch McConnell has used his time in Washington to get rich as conditions in the state got worse. LA-Sen: The NRA adapts another one of its ads to go after Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu. NC-Sen: The Susan B. Anthony List recently started spending on behalf of Republican Thom Tillis, and EMILYs List is hoping they can turn the group into a liability for Tillis. In their new spot, EMILY portrays the rival organization as an extreme anti-women group. The ad is reportedly running on cable for five figures. Also on the Democratic side, the NEA continues to hit Tillis on education cuts. NH-Sen: Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen accuses Republican Scott Brown of wanting to interfere with womens personal choices, while not-so-subtly reminding the viewer that Brown carpetbagged to the state from Massachusetts. OR-Sen: Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley looks like hes all set for re-election, but he still has a cute ad. Its a positive spot featuring his family arguing that Merkley never forgot his middle class roots. Theres also a funny visual at the beginning of Merkley in a Superman pose as the garage door opens. SD-Sen: There hasnt been too much outside spending in this contest, but it looks like one group is going in big. Lawrence Lessigs anti-big money group Mayday PAC is spending $1 million to help Democrat Rick Weiland, a huge sum in this relatively inexpensive state. Maydays spot promotes Weiland as someone who will stand up for the middle class and not the rich. Mayday is not exactly renounced for its... well, basic competence, but Weiland probably isnt complaining about getting some much needed air support. Crossroads: The deep-pocketed GOP group Crossroads GPS has been busy lately, and theyre rolling out new spots in several Senate contests. In Arkansas, they tie Sen. Mark Pryor to Obama. In Iowa, they tie Bruce Braley to Obama. In Kentucky (here and here) they tie Alison Grimes to Obama. In Louisiana, they tie Sen. Mary Landrieu to Obama...care!!! Surprise! We also have a few size of the buys. In a recent Colorado spot, they spent $1,512,000 while in Louisiana they shelled out $486,000. AR-Gov: The DGA-allied Jobs and Opportunity has two ads (here and here) hitting Republican Asa Hutchinson as hostile to small businesses and farmers. AZ-Gov: The RGA calls Democrat Fred DuVal a liberal lobbyist, throwing a bunch of attacks at him on Obamacare, college tuition, and drivers licenses for undocumented immigrants. DuVals own spot features him hiking with his family as he talks about his bipartisan record. CT-Gov: The DGA-backed Connecticut Forward argues that Republican Tom Foleys policies will hurt families. GA-Gov: Republican Gov. Nathan Deal has mostly been running positive commercials focusing on the state economy and left the negative spots to the RGA, but no more. Deal accuses Democrat Jason Carter of lying about the governors economic record, while wanting to raise taxes himself. Speaking of the RGA, theyre back on the air. They argue that Carter voted against education funding in the state Senate, and is lying about his calls to improve education. HI-Gov: Democrat David Iges spot stars former Sen. Dan Akaka, who praises his goals. ID-Gov: Wealthy Democratic candidate A.J. Balukoff hits Republican Gov. Butch Otter on education. The ad features a Republican superintendent describing Otters brutal cuts and declaring hell vote for a Democrat for the first time. IL-Gov: Republican Bruce Rauner has another very hard-hitting spot. It accuses Democratic Gov. Pat Quinns administration of allowing children to die that it was supposed to be caring for. ME-Gov: The RGA once again accuses Democrat Mike Michaud of helping undocumented immigrants at the expense of Maines middle class. MI-Gov: Democrat Mark Schauer appears in his new ad, where he calls for undoing the policies championed by Republican Gov. Rick Snyder that only help the rich. OR-Gov: Democratic Gov. John Kitzhaber. RI-Gov: Democrat Gina Raimondo defends from Republican Allan Fungs attempts to tie her to 38 Studios, a video game company that took loans from the state right before going bankrupt. Raimondo argues that Fungs plan for what to do next will only cause problems for the state. WI-Gov: The NRAs ad features a violent crime survivor. She praises Republican Gov. Scott Walker for making it easier for women to defend themselves. AR-02: Democrat Patrick Henry Hays has managed to put this open 55-43 Romney seat on the map, and the GOP has responded accordingly. American Crossroads is spending $453,000 on a spot portraying Hays as an Obama drone. Hays himself goes negative, continuing to portray Republican French Hill as a corrupt banker. AR-04: Republican Bruce Westerman goes biographical. CA-21: Democrat Amanda Renteria emphasizes her endorsement from the Fresno Bee over Republican Rep. David Valadao. CA-52: Republican Carl DeMaio is probably the first major Republican candidate for any office to utter the words, As a proud gay American. DeMaio defends himself from Democratic attempts to portray him as a tea partier. CT-04: Republican Dan Debicella ties Democratic Rep. Jim Himes to Gov. Dan Malloy. CT-05: Democratic Rep. Elizabeth Esty continues to go after Republican Mark Greenberg on Social Security. FL-02: The NRCCs has two new ads (here and here). The first continues to tie Democrat Gwen Graham to the national party, while the second has a bipartisan pair of mayors declaring their support for Republican Rep. Steve Southerland. National party groups have run very few positive ads this year and it is a bit interesting that the NRCC is rolling out one here: It may be a sign that Southerlands favorables arent as high as they want them to be. Southerland himself talks jobs. FL-18: Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy has another in his long series of positive ads. He once again touts how independent and bipartisan he is. GA-12: Democratic Rep. John Barrow highlights his record helping veterans. IL-11: Republican Darlene Sengers campaign hasnt exactly been a fundraising standout, but shes up with a spot anyhow. She accuses Democratic Rep. Bill Foster of being a wasteful spender, while calling for lower taxes and spending cuts. IL-12: The New Prosperity Foundation spends $102,000 against Democratic Rep. Bill Enyart. IL-17: Democrat Cheri Bustos. ME-02: EMILYs List portrays Republican Bruce Poliquin as a heartless Wall Street insider. MN-02: Republican Rep. John Kline. MT-AL: This is different. The narrator in Democrat John Lewis new spot sings a version of This Land is Your Land attacking Republican Ryan Zinke on public access to land. Kind of cute, but Woody Guthrie does it better. NY-18: The DCCC paints Republican Nan Hayworth as a tea party radical. The spot twice uses a clip of Hayworth saying, I am proud to be a radical, to make its case. I think the correct term is reactionary not radical, but its not like the DCCC is going to get Hayworth to do a reshoot. OR-05: Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader. TX-23: The Congressional Leadership Fund hits Democratic Rep. Pete Gallego over Obamacare. Chamber: Jeb Bush narrates a trio of Spanish-language spots for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in CO-Sen, AZ-02, and CA-21. Congressional Leadership Fund: Speaker John Boehners super PAC is going after Democratic incumbents in three districts. They are spending $1 million against Brad Schneider in IL-10, $1.6 million against Carol Shea-Porter in NH-01, and $500,000 against Julia Brownley in CA-26. DCCC: Various Democratic expenditures (here and here). The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, with additional contributions from Jeff Singer, David Jarman, Steve Singiser, and Taniel.
Posted on: Wed, 08 Oct 2014 14:34:35 +0000
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