Email this a.m. from MEMA: looks like mostly for the Cape and Southeast MA..but come on..really? MARCH 23, 2014 7:00 AM SUBJECT: POTENTIAL WINTER STORM TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A strong winter coastal storm may track close enough to Massachusetts on Tuesday night and Wednesday to have significant impacts on the state, especially in southeastern Massachusetts. The impacts of the storm may include heavy snow (potential for more than 12 over the Cape and Islands), strong winds (particularly over the Cape & Islands and southeast portions of the state), and coastal flooding. There is still a good deal of uncertainty in the precise track of the storm; a shift of the track by just 100 miles would significantly change the forecast. Overall confidence in the forecast is highest for the Cape & Islands. Confidence in the forecast drops off as you move further inland and to the west. The National Weather Service in Taunton has provided the following forecast information: From the National Weather Service Overview: A significant and potentially dangerous coastal storm is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday with the height of the storm late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. A combination of winter-weather impacts in the form of heavy snow along with strong to damaging northerly winds is possible. There is also the potential for coastal flooding with high tide around Wednesday morning. Specifics remain uncertain. Subtle shifts in the storm track will change outcomes significantly. At present, highest confidence of significant impacts is across Southeast New England. For more details and discussion, please read below ... Snow: · High confidence in the need for winter-storm warnings (minimum criteria of 6) across Southeast New England with adjacent winter weather advisories (minimum criteria of 3) towards the interior. · Heaviest snow is late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, especially for southeast New England, and Cape/Islands in particular. · Moderate confidence of snowfall exceeding a foot for the Cape and Islands. · Moderate confidence on Blizzard conditions (35 mph winds with visibilities a quarter mile or less in heavy snow and blowing and drifting), across the Cape and Islands with lower confidence over southeast Massachusetts. Winds: · High confidence in northerly winds gusting to 50-60 mph over the Cape/Islands with 40-50 mph wind gusts across southeast MA. · The strongest winds will be late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. · MARINERS: a dangerous situation out on the waters as there is high confidence of northerly winds exceeding storm-force (at least 50 kts) over the southeast waters. Low probability of hurricane force wind gusts (at least 64 kts) over the waters east of Cape Cod which will depend on how close the storm tracks to New England. Coastal Impacts: · The tide of concern is the high tide near 8 am Wednesday along the east coast of MA. · Moderate confidence in areas of minor coastal flooding, especially for north facing shorelines of Cape Ann and Nantucket, and particularly for areas of Cape Cod facing Cape Cod Bay. · The threat of more significant coastal flooding is possible if the storm tracks a bit closer to New England. · MARINERS: Moderate confidence of wave heights exceeding 20 feet across the eastern waters. Again, still a level of uncertainty in the forecast that limits confidence in specific outcomes. Nevertheless, this storm is potentially dangerous, especially over the Cape/Islands and on the waters, due to the combination of heavy snow, strong to damaging winds and high seas.
Posted on: Sun, 23 Mar 2014 11:50:46 +0000
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