FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. IMPRESSIVE LIFT VIA CLOUD TOP COOLING OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF PIVOTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP FROM THE PACIFIC...SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE...992 LOW PRESSURE (4 MB DEEPER IN THE LAST 3 HRS...ABOUT 200 MILES E OF THE DELMARVA...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SLOWLY TRACK NE/N TO AROUND THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK BY DAYBREAK. RADAR BLOSSOMING WITH BANDS OF SNOWFALL ADVECTING NW INTO LI/CT THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...WITH SNOWFALL RATES PICKING UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. AS LARGE BANDS SOLIDIFY OVERNIGHT...RATES SHOULD PICK UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR UNDER THOSE BANDS...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION. SO FAR HEAVIEST SNOW TOTALS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS NYC AND WESTERN LI WITH EARLIER CONVERGENCE BAND DROPPING 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. FOR THE OVERNIGHT...STILL SOME MODEL VARIANCE ON EXACTLY HOW THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION BEHAVE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH NAM SEEMING LIKE A WESTERN OUTLIER. THE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR WEST BANDING WILL GET. THE HUDSON RIVER DOWN TO NYC/NJ METRO SEEMS LIKES THE FAVORED WESTERN BOUNDARY OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME...WITH THE STRENGTH AND EXPANSE OF DEEP LAYERED LIFT AND NEGATIVE TILTING OF UPPER ENERGY...AND WCB CONVECTION TO E OF LOW...NOT READY TO MAKE ANY WHOLESALE CHANGE TO SNOWFALL FORECAST. SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA AFTER 06Z OR SO WHERE THE WESTERN EXTENT OF BANDING WILL DEVELOP. AND WITH THESE MILLER B TYPE SYSTEMS...THEY TRADITIONALLY HAVE A SHARP CUTOFF IN PRECIP TO WEST OF THE MAIN BANDING. SO AT THAT POINT WILL HAVE BETTER EVIDENCE ON REFINING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UNDER BAND LOCATIONS AND DECREASING SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. AS FOR WINDS...THEY WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40-50 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACROSS EXTREME ERN LI...WIND GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT...WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.
Posted on: Tue, 27 Jan 2015 02:33:05 +0000
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