FXUS62 KFFC 141111 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 711 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .UPDATE... CONTINUING TO CLEAR COUNTIES FROM THE TORNADO WATCHES ONCE THE LINE PUSHES EAST OF THE COUNTIES. STRONG WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNRISE HAVE WARRANTED PLACING THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL GA COUNTIES IN A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS STILL SEEM TO BE THE MAIN STORM THREAT ALONG THE SQUALL LINE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... WE JUST CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TOR DUE TO THE STRONG WIND SHEAR NEAR THE SURFACE. CONTINUED TO STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. 39 && .PREV DISCUSSIONS... /ISSUED 436 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS ADVERTISED... A SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS WEST GA THIS MORNING... AND PROGGD TO PUSH TO NEAR AN ATLANTA TO MACON LINE BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM... THEN ACROSS EAST GA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE LINE OF STORMS PUSHES EAST THIS MORNING... AN ISOLATED BURST OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE THROUGH IS THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH MID MORNING. THIS THREAT WILL GREATLY DIMINISH FOR EAST GA DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS... AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS. THIS CONCERN HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH FOR PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GA THROUGH 11 AM THIS MORNING. ALL THESE THREATS WILL GREATLY DIMINISH ONCE THE LINE OF STORMS PUSHES EAST OF YOUR AREA. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF FLASH FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODELS DO SHOW A SECOND LINE OF STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT... AND THIS WOULD PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTA METRO AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON IF DEVELOPS. AT THIS TIME... THE ONLY THREAT EXPECTED WITH THIS SECOND DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE ISOLATED BURST OF STRONG WINDS. WILL KEEP A WIND ADVISORY UP THROUGH 8 AM FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLY MIXING DOWN WITH ANY CONVECTION. OTHERWISE... THE EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVER THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES... WILL COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TONIGHT... ALTHO THIS MAY BE TRICKY WITH WRAP AROUND CLOUDS POSSIBLY HOLDING TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EXPECTED. CLOUDS AND COOL WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD HELP HOLD HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR ALL AREAS. 39 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT LIFTING UPPER LOW SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BY THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO FORECAST AREA TO KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA FOR THURSDAY...AND THERE ARE A COUPLE OF RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND... BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH MAIN IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. GENERALLY DRY FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. ATWELL HYDROLOGY... EARLY TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS NORTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA... WITH 1-1.5 FROM THE SE ATL METRO AREA THROUGH MACON... AND BELOW 1 INCH FURTHER SE. THIS RAINFALL OVER AN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL MAKE THE AREA PRIME FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES TODAY. THEREFORE... WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF NORTH GA THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT. SITE SPECIFIC MODELS INDICATE THAT WITH THE FORECAST AMOUNT OF PRECIP...SEVERAL RIVERS COULD SEE BANKFULL OR MINOR FLOODING CONDITIONS... PARTICULARLY IN THE CONASAUGA RIVER AND LOOKOUT CREEK BASINS. 31/39 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014/ 06Z UPDATE... MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF SQUALL LINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 09-12Z THIS MORNING. HIRES MODELS SHOW A SECOND LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT... AND THIS LINE MAY PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 16-19Z TODAY... BUT STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THIS SECOND LINE AT THIS TIME. EXPECT CIGS TO OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO IFR LEVELS WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION... BUT MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO VFR AFTER THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WRAP AROUND CLOUDS TO SPREAD MVFR CIGS BACK INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT... MAYBE AROUND 07-10Z WED. OTHERWISE... WINDS WILL BE SSE AROUND 10G20KTS THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING... THEN VEER SSW BY EARLY AFTERNOON... THEN WESTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS. 39 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 74 53 69 51 / 100 80 20 10 ATLANTA 73 55 67 53 / 100 30 20 10 BLAIRSVILLE 70 50 62 48 / 100 60 40 20 CARTERSVILLE 73 52 67 50 / 100 20 30 10 COLUMBUS 75 52 74 54 / 100 20 10 0 GAINESVILLE 73 52 66 51 / 100 50 30 10 MACON 77 53 75 51 / 100 60 10 5 ROME 72 52 67 51 / 100 30 40 20 PEACHTREE CITY 73 51 69 50 / 100 20 20 5 VIDALIA 78 62 77 54 / 100 80 10 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON... LAURENS...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...TALIAFERRO...TOOMBS... TREUTLEN...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILKES. TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BLECKLEY...CLARKE...CRISP... DODGE...DOOLY...GREENE...HALL...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN... MORGAN...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PULASKI...PUTNAM...TELFAIR... TWIGGS...WALTON...WHITE...WILCOX...WILKINSON. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...DADE...DAWSON... FANNIN...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS... TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...DADE...DAWSON... FANNIN...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS... POLK...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD. && $$ SHORT TERM...39 LONG TERM....ATWELL AVIATION...39
Posted on: Tue, 14 Oct 2014 11:14:32 +0000
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