FXUS62 KFFC 171948 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 248 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY COLD AIRMASS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE ANY RECORD LOWS TONIGHT BUT WITH SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISHING TOMORROW NIGHT WE MAY BE PUSHING A FEW RECORD LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH WINDS STRONG AND GUSTY TONIGHT WE ARE LOOKING AT VERY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON. SOME AREAS IN THE FAR NORTH...MAINLY ABOVE 2KFT...WILL SEE WIND CHILLS AT OR A BIT BELOW 5 DEGREES WHICH IS ADVISORY CRITERIA. I WILL NOT ONLY BE CONTINUING WITH THE CURRENT ADVISORY BUT ALSO EXPANDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW...WE MAY YET SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH STRONG CAA INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE... DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT FOR OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES WHERE WE HAVE NOT HAD A HARD FREEZE YET...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A WEST POINT TO CENTERVILLE AND SWAINSBORO LINE. ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED TOMORROW NIGHT FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO NOT REACH 28 DEGREES OR LOWER TONIGHT. 20 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO LATE FRIDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM. GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DEEP LOW DEVELOPING IN THE SW STATES AND TRACKING TO THE NE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS PUTS US IN A SW FLOW ALOFT WITH INCREASED POP CHANCES INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. TIMING FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW. 41 && LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... /ISSUED 308 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014/ DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. DRY UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SKIRTING N GA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED. HIGHS WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO 60. GFS AND EUROPEAN DIFFERING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE MOST SO OVER N GA OVER A RATHER COLD AIRMASS. MODEL BLENDS GIVE SMALL POPS OVER NW GA WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A LATE NIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX. GFS AND EUROPEAN CONTINUE WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER N GA. THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LATE FRIDAY KEEPS ONLY SMALL POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY FROM LINGERING MOISTURE WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO MIX. SMALL POPS FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND AN OVERRUNNING TYPE FLOW DEVELOPS. POPS INCREASE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THE GFS AND EUROPEAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BDL CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 11-18 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 80 1994 44 2000 63 1930 23 1891 1942 1951 1938 KATL 80 1985 37 2000 63 1930 18 1891 1928 KCSG 84 1985 45 1951 66 1986 26 1951 KMCN 83 2003 46 2000 66 1986 23 1997 1985 1903 1957 1938 RECORDS FOR 11-19 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 81 1942 40 2000 64 1931 20 2008 1903 KATL 80 1942 34 1903 67 1906 18 1903 KCSG 83 1985 44 2000 60 1998 25 1949 1988 1985 KMCN 83 1942 43 2000 68 1906 24 2008 1903 2005 AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... WIDE MIXTURE OF MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MAINLY MVFR BY 22-00Z AND THEN MORE RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH BY 00-06Z. LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME AS WELL AND NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AFTER 19Z. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-17KT W/ GUSTS 18-28KT THROUGH 06Z...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY TO 8-14KT W/ GUSTS 18-24KT AFTER. //ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... MODERATE TO HIGH AL ELEMENTS. 20 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 23 40 19 44 / 10 0 0 0 ATLANTA 22 37 21 44 / 0 0 0 0 BLAIRSVILLE 20 34 17 41 / 20 0 0 0 CARTERSVILLE 23 35 18 43 / 5 0 0 0 COLUMBUS 25 41 23 48 / 0 0 0 0 GAINESVILLE 23 36 22 42 / 10 0 0 0 MACON 26 43 18 47 / 10 0 0 0 ROME 23 34 18 44 / 10 5 0 0 PEACHTREE CITY 23 38 16 44 / 0 0 0 0 VIDALIA 32 48 25 48 / 30 0 5 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE... DOOLY...EMANUEL...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...LAURENS...MACON... MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY... STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS... TREUTLEN...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER... LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE... WHITFIELD. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...20 daculaweather
Posted on: Mon, 17 Nov 2014 19:49:11 +0000
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