FXUS62 KFFC 310119 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 919 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .UPDATE... MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE EARLIER THIS EVENING AS CIRRUS DECK IS ADVECTING IN FROM NW. OTHERWISE MINOR TWEAKS TO DEWPOINTS AND FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... BAKER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/ .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A GRADUAL SHIFT FROM THE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF A TRANSITIONING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND THE WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PLACE THE REGION IN MOIST WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IMPACT THE STATE. INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED...WITH GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY /BEGINNING IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND SPREADING WESTWARD/ AND THEN CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS MOIST AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM...BRINGING A CLOSE TO THE NICE WEATHER SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT FOR NOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE WELL ABOVE ANY BROKEN RECORDS WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. 31 && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING THE SOUTHEAST AS THE AREA TRANSITIONS TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WET WEATHER WILL RETURN TO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM AND THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE UPDATED FORECAST. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO WARM THEM A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. IN ADDITION...GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. 11 PREVIOUS LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/ ABNORMALLY PLEASANT LATE JULY WEATHER TO COME TO AN END AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. AS ALLUDED ABOVE...FRONT WILL WASH OUT LATE THURSDAY AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. NOT SEEING ANY SIGN OF PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL. BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY WHEN WARM ADVECTION IS STRONGEST. SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK...OVERALL PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA...SOME STRONG DURING PEAK IN INSTABILITY...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MOST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN PLACE THRU TUES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO KEEP ANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFFSHORE...WELL EAST OF US COAST. IN SPITE OF RECENT FRONTS LAST 30 DAYS...HAVE SIDED WITH BIAS CORRECTED BLEND OF MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. SNELSON && .AVIATION... 00Z UPDATE... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH TRENDING CLOSE TO MVFR NEAR END OF PERIOD EARLY FRIDAY. GENERALLY SOME CIRRUS BUILDING INTO TONIGHT THEN CU FIELD DEVELOPING INTO NEAR BKN 4-5 KFT AFTER 18Z THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY SCT TO BKN NEAR 2 KFT AFTER 03-06Z FRIDAY. WINDS GENERALLY EAST TO ENE UNDER 10 KTS AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES ON INCREASE BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OTHERWISE ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY LATE THURSDAY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. //ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON CIGS THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH ON ALL ELSE. BAKER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 66 84 68 81 / 10 20 30 50 ATLANTA 67 83 67 81 / 5 20 30 50 BLAIRSVILLE 58 77 63 74 / 10 30 50 50 CARTERSVILLE 62 83 66 81 / 5 20 30 50 COLUMBUS 68 88 71 86 / 5 20 20 40 GAINESVILLE 66 80 66 77 / 10 30 40 50 MACON 67 88 70 86 / 10 20 20 40 ROME 61 84 67 81 / 5 20 30 50 PEACHTREE CITY 63 85 68 82 / 5 20 30 50 VIDALIA 71 90 73 89 / 20 20 20 40 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...31/BAKER LONG TERM...SNELSON/11 AVIATION...BAKER
Posted on: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 01:20:02 +0000
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