FXUS62 KMLB 310223 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 920 PM EST THU JAN 30 2014 .DISCUSSION... BEST JET DYNAMICS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST. STILL ANOTHER AREA OF RA MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASCD WITH SMALLER SCALE JET CORE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND LOCAL WRF SHOW BEST LIFT WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FCST AREA OVERNIGHT WHICH IS WELL REPRESENTED IN CURRENT FCST. SOME OF THE PCPN WILL REACH INTO NORTHERN AREAS AND COMPLEX FRAGMENTED JET STRUCTURE WELL AWAY FROM MAIN JET CORE IS PRODUCING LESS ORGANIZED SMALLER PATCHES OF RA WELL UPSTREAM THAT MAY PASS THROUGH. AWAY FROM THE MORE PERSISTANT RA...SO IN NORTHERN AREAS...WILL BE A GREATER CHANCE OF FOG. LOW CLOUDS WILL LOWER FURTHER TO PRODUCE FOG BUT AM NOT EXPECTING VSBYS AS LOW AS WHAT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. TEMP FCST ON TRACK WITH VALUES HOLDING STEADY OR ONLY FALLING A COUPLE DEGREES. HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD ACROSS NORTH INTERIOR. PREV DISC... FRIDAY...WEAK LOW/INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE IN THE DAY. WEAK OVERRUNNING CONTINUING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACH OF A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES INTO TOMORROW. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO AREA TO THE CAPE UP TO 40 PERCENT OVER MARTIN COUNTY. LOWER CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO BREAK UP INTO LATE MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS FOR THIS REASON BUT HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR... REACHING THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FROM ORLANDO AREA NORTH TO LOW TO MID 70S FARTHER SOUTH. FRI NIGHT...REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD WHILE A DAMPENING OUT MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GULF. THOUGH BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE IN A WEAKENING STATE...AT LEAST A SMALL POP IS WARRANTED...WHICH IS WHAT MOS IS SHOWING. THESE KIND OF BOUNDARIES ARE ALSO NOTORIOUS FOR PRODUCING FOG...SO HAVE ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SAT-SUN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL NOSE BACK IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AND PRODUCE A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW. THE GFS HOLDS ONTO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SAT AND CONTINUES WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES. PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWED A THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL NOT CHANGE. MOISTURE DEPTH LOOKS LOWER ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTINUING QUITE HIGH IN THE MID 60S...A SMALL SHOWER CHANCE SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING MUCH WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES... UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER 80S INLAND WITH A FEW MID 80S IN THE SOUTH INTERIOR. HAVE NUDGED THEM DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON SAT AS THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE MORNING CLOUDINESS. A SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A LITTLE BELOW MOS VALUES. MON-WED (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS MON AND TUE BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WED AHEAD OF AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN GULF. DRY FORECAST MON AND TUE TRANSITIONS TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WED AS FRONT NEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION...LOW CIGS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING LIFR VSBYS MAINLY TO THE NORTH. CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOW FOG MAINLY ALONG COAST WITH VSBYS NOT AS LOW AS GUIDANCE FCST. WILL KEEP FOG IN FCST BUT WILL NOT GO AS LOW AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...MAINLY MVFR TO OCNL IFR. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SLOW TO SUBSIDE BUT TRENDS IN RIGHT DIRECTION AND WILL ALLOW SCA TO EXPIRE AS PLANNED AT 10 PM AND REPLACE WITH EXERCISE CAUTION. WEEKEND...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA ON SAT AS WEAK REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OR LIFTS NORTH OF THE WATERS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WIND FLOW. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS 10 KNOT OR LESS IN THE NORTH AND 10-12 KNOTS IN THE SOUTH...THEN 10-12 KNOTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS SUNDAY. MON-TUE...SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN MON WITH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING NORTH OF THE WATERS ON TUE. SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BE 5-10 KNOTS MON AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW IS INDICATED ON TUE AT 10-15 KNOTS. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ BLOTTMAN/PENDERGRAST PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Fri, 31 Jan 2014 02:23:56 +0000