From National Weather Service: Outlook for Severe Storms Sunday and Monday Slight Risk of Severe Storms Sunday afternoon and evening for the northern Rio Grande Plains... ...Slight Risk of Severe Storms Monday afternoon and evening for the Hill Country and Plains from Austin to the east... ...AREA OF CONCERN...For Sunday, mainly Val Verde County. For Monday, generally along and north of U.S. 290, including metro Austin. ...IMPACTS...Large hail greater than 1 inch in diameter and damaging winds in excess of 58 mph. Some storms on Monday could also move slowly and produce minor flash flooding. ...TIMING...2 pm to 9 pm each day. ...CONFIDENCE...Low for Sunday...Moderate for Monday. The ingredients of moist air, instability, lift, and wind shear are just barely in place for Sunday. Its a different story Monday, where the ingredients should come together with an additional boost of converging air over the Hill Country to cause rapid development of storms and enhance their severity. ...DISCUSSION...A ragged upper low will move across the Southern Plains on Sunday and Monday. Rather than come across intact, it will be breaking apart in pieces. This means a couple chances for rain, but not as concentrated as if the low came across altogether. While a few severe storms are possible Sunday, they should be limited to Val Verde and maybe Edwards counties. However, the various models we look at, plus comparison with similar events (analogs) from the past, strongly point to severe storms developing over the Hill Country early Monday afternoon, then slowly moving east across locations along and north of U.S. 290. The main concern at this point would be the afternoon commute in metro Austin, as the storms could be passing through the area then. While there still is a lot of uncertainty this far out, there is enough confidence to bring this to your attention, especially coming out of a holiday such as Easter weekend, since the severe storms could develop shortly after noon on Monday.
Posted on: Sat, 19 Apr 2014 12:56:35 +0000
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