Good Sunday morning! Here’s what’s heading up the “forecast discussion” this morning… 1) We will continue to melt more snow for the next few days and most of it should be gone by Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 60s and 70s! 2) The next big storm is coming for Friday and Saturday with the computer models trending “colder” today and forecasting snow….but will it be cold enough? 3) There could be a second storm system right behind the one for Friday and Saturday. The computer models are split on when the second one arrives. I don’t know about your yard, but mine sure melted off quite a bit of snow in my backyard (faces the south), but my front yard is still pretty much covered up (faces north). The southward-facing front yards on my street have very little snow on them as well, so the angle of the sun really has dictated the snowmelt! All the snow will really get a good melt today and for tomorrow as well with plenty of sunshine. A “wind shift line” pushed through while you were sleeping and we have northerly and northwesterly winds at 10-20 mph with some occasional higher gusts ongoing. If you live in the eastern Panhandles (Beaver, Booker, Canadian, Wheeler, Shamrock, Wellington, Memphis, Childress, Paducah), you will have stronger winds than the rest of us today and at least 15-25 mph sustained winds from the north and northwest, gusting to 35-40 mph, will occur. The reason why this area will see stronger winds is that a band of stronger winds aloft will work through Kansas and Oklahoma today…and the cities listed above will be closer geographically to this event. Skies will be mostly sunny over most of the area and partly cloudy skies may be more likely for the eastern Panhandles, again thanks to that band of stronger winds aloft. High temperatures will vary again, due to whether or not you have snow on the ground, from 40s and 50s where snow remains to 50s and 60s where you don’t. I’ve attached the KVII Computer Forecast Model at 5pm, the NAM (North American Computer Model) and the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh Computer Model) showing the forecast cloud cover and radar screens for 3-5pm (CST) today. As we head back to work and school tomorrow, the weather should really be fantastic with lighter winds than today (westerly at 10-20 mph), plenty of sunshine (sunny to mostly sunny skies) and high temperatures rising to between 50-60 degrees where snow is still left to melt, to the 60s and around 70 degrees in the snow-free areas. I would think that by tomorrow afternoon, nearly all of the snow will be gone and what’s left will just be in the shady areas of backyards (up against fences) and other locations where the sun simply doesn’t reach this time of the year. Tuesday will be even warmer than Monday and a large chunk of the area will see high temperatures in the 60s to even the lower 70s for cities such as Wellington, Memphis, Childress, Paducah and Quanah! Winds will blow from the southwest at 10-20 mph and it should be another day with abundant sunshine as sunny to mostly sunny skies are expected! I would suspect that if not on Monday, Tuesday will be a day that the car washes are packed with folks getting the salt and other materials that road crews put down to make the snow-packed streets drivable off their cars! Better get to the car wash early! Wednesday will also be unseasonably warm with high temperatures rising into the 60s to around 70 degrees, but it won’t be as warm as Tuesday thanks to a cold front that will blow through during the morning hours. Southwesterly winds at 10-20 mph during the morning will switch around to the north at the same average speed by the afternoon. Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy as well, so overall, it will still be warmer than the 30-year average high of 53 degrees, but just not as warm as what we experienced on Tuesday. Thursday will be a day in which three things will happen. One is that it will be colder thanks to Wednesday’s cold front, but high temperatures around 50 degrees will be expected. This is very close to the 30-year average high of 53 degrees for Thursday. The second thing is that it will be windier on Thursday with at least, 15-25 mph sustained winds blowing from the north and it very well could be windier over the eastern Panhandles where 20-30 mph sustained winds could occur there. The third thing is the cloud cover. We will see a lot more of it with partly to occasionally mostly cloudy skies on the way, thanks to an approaching storm system that will be parked over northwestern Mexico on Thursday. TGI Friday looks to be wet….especially Friday afternoon, evening and overnight into Saturday. Okay, here’s where we are starting to see some “computer model trends” that we often talk about. The model “trend” today, vs. what I saw yesterday, is that it will be colder than what we looked at yesterday for this time period. What does that mean? Well, Friday’s high temperature will be closer to 40 degrees and that’s even with winds swinging around to the southwest at 5-15 mph in the morning and 10-20 mph in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies are expected on TGI Friday. The second thing that this model “trend” indicates is that when the precipitation starts falling Friday afternoon, evening and overnight into Saturday, it may be mixed with, or changeover to snow. Yesterday, only one computer model (the usual chilly Canadian) showed snow. Today, the European and GFS (American ) models have jumped on board. What has me somewhat concerned is that the temperatures for Friday night and Saturday morning are between 32-35 degrees….so will the snow even stick? We did see snow fall with this last storm system at this temperature range and the falling snow pushed the temperatures down and the snow obviously stuck. This may be what happens with this storm…IF the snow falls at all. The European isn’t real excited about measurable snowfall and has Amarillo at an inch, but it sure likes the accumulating snowfall for Clovis and has them between 9-12 inches of snow…Yikes! The GFS is more “realistic”, in my opinion this morning, with a swath of 2-4” snowfall totals between Shamrock to Clovis with 3 inches of snow for Amarillo on Friday night and Saturday. The Canadian is only showing rain for Friday and Saturday….then brings in the main storm system and of course, a chunk of cold air into the mix…changing the rain over to snow and dropping about 2-4” for Amarillo on Saturday night and into the day on Sunday…with the heavier snow from around Follett and Higgins in the far northeastern TX Panhandle into southern Kansas. The European and GFS disagree with this and keep the main upper-level storm spinning over Mexico…until NEXT Wednesday…then push it through with just a cold rain expected then. Yikes, what a dilemma. So, I would simply expect a rain/snow mix at this time for Friday night and Saturday with some accumulating snow possible, but I will need to look at more data as we get closer to really start to believe these forecast snowfall amounts. Just stay tuned and keep checking back around 6am daily this week as we get more data and update these “forecast discussions” at that time. NEXT Sunday’s forecast is also up in the air with the Canadian showing a major winter storm system over and east of us…while the European and GFS computer models simply have us sitting and waiting for the main storm to approach and keeping skies mostly cloudy to cloudy! I will go with the computer model “majority” right now and believe the European and GFS’ idea of the main storm waiting to move through. High temperatures in the 40s are likely with winds blowing from the southwest at 10-20 mph. So, that’s a look at THIS Sunday’s forecast discussion. I hope that you enjoy the warm-up for the next few days and we will keep a very close eye on next weekend’s storm system and what it might do for us as far as more rain and snow! Take care and I’ll see you back here first thing Monday morning with another update!
Posted on: Sun, 25 Jan 2015 12:11:22 +0000