Good afternoon everyone how are you going? Hope you had a great day. Today we have seen frequent showers, some heavy to very heavy at times but mainly short lived. These showers are set to continue and increase into tonight along with areas of rain that might start to form as well. Now remember yesterday I posted a heads up post well this is a follow up. After comparing a few models its come to my conclusion that there will be rain / showers and the rain and showers may become heavier and more frequent depending on the movement of a Trough and LOW. Currently we have moist air pumping into the QLD / NE NSW coast and in return we are seeing an increase in the wet stuff. Any ware north of about Deception Bay is currently experiencing light to moderate rain with some heavy showers. This area of light / moderate rain is currently moving south so by tonight i would expect SE QLD and NE NSW to get some of this rain but the main feature will be trains of heavy showers which is currently being observed on the radar and has been pointed out in the attached radar image in the two circled areas. Tomorrow morning we can expect light to moderate rain areas in at least SEQ and N NE NSW. If more rain develops then there is a chance that areas further inland might also get a good drink. By the time Friday afternoon rocks up this is where we start to get a little fuzzy and here is why. GFS one of the models is going for an extensive amount of rainfall in SEQ / the border from 5pm onwards (SEE ATTACHMENT). Now GFS has been known to over exaggerate things in terms or rainfall and storms in the past but the fact that 1 day out its still holding onto this scenario means there is something that it thinks is going to happen that would cause that rain to form. Other models such as ACCESS-R and ECMWF are not going for these high totals however they are also forecasting widespread rain, so we can at least conclude that there will be widespread rain and that there is a chance that rain could become heavy at times but only ONE model is going for it at the moment, Now here is the last part, what I think might possibly occur: I have a feeling that we might see a smaller low try to form someware over SE QLD or close and in return this is where the extra heavy rainfall forecast is coming from, im not saying this will 100% happen its just my thoughts. I am confident in saying i believe that the Coastal areas might see in Excess of 50mm and the inland areas 20mm+ with isolated falls on the coast 50 - 100mm depending on where the heavier stuff falls. Thank you for reading all of that if you stuck all the way to the end haha, NCSC will keep you posted on developments and will make sure to inform you of anything of concern :) ~Antonio.
Posted on: Thu, 22 Jan 2015 06:15:49 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015