Good morning...its going to be an active weather day across Arkansas as a line of thunderstorms moves across the state. The line is entering western AR at 5:30 am this morning and most model guidance suggests it will enter central AR around 10:00 - 12:00 and eastern AR later in the afternoon. A few severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued in association with the line this morning and model data indicates the line should intensify as it moves east later this morning and for that reason the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded central and eastern AR to a MODERATE RISK of severe weather. The primary threat continues to be damaging wind in excess of 70mph and some large hail, but atmospheric conditions may support a few tornadoes especially in part of central and eastern AR as the line moves through. The greatest threat for these would be along the leading edge and with any strong thunderstorms out ahead of the main line. There may be a greater threat for tornadoes in northern Mississippi and western Tennessee late this afternoon, but Arkansas certainly needs to be watched. Most likely a tornado watch will be issued for some sections of the state. Gusty southerly winds will be felt out ahead of the system with winds gusting close to 35-40 mph in parts of central and eastern sections of the state ahead of the system. Once the front clears, winds will be out of the west and SW with gusts to 25-30 mph. Heavy rain is another factor with most locations seeing 1-2 inches in a short amount of time. Flash flooding could be a concern especially in areas that received heavy rain Friday night/Saturday. The system will clear AR but an upper low will skirt southern Missouri on Tuesday with some clouds and showers possible tonight and Tuesday. Cooler temps will be seen with highs on Tuesday dropping into the 50s and 60s with gusty west winds. The rest of the week looks very nice with temps in the 70s and sunny skies. Here is the severe weather outlook (an update will come out around 7:30) and the latest HRRR and NAM simulated radar forecasting the system into central AR. It should be noted the line is slightly ahead of current forecasts so this might be a little slow.
Posted on: Mon, 13 Oct 2014 10:46:26 +0000
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