HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 500 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013 OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-041700- HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE- ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM- WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND- POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN- COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON- CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER- WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY- 500 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN... CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK... THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF WESTERN...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LOCATION... THE AREA NORTH AND WEST OF A SEMINOLE TO DUNCAN AND FREDERICK LINE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. TIMING... THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 5 PM THROUGH 2 AM SATURDAY. RECOMMENDED ACTIONS... STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE RISK AREA SHOULD BE READY FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS. DISCUSSION... STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE FIRST STORMS ARE EXPECTED DEVELOP NEAR AN ALVA TO WOODWARD AND ARNETT LINE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TO A SHAWNEE...LAWTON AND VERNON...TEXAS LINE BY MIDNIGHT. BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF MCALESTER AND DURANT. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 65 MPH... HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS...THE RISK OF HAIL WILL DECREASE BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. PROBABILITY TABLE... VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY OCT 5. PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT. PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT. OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER... NONE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER... NONE.
Posted on: Fri, 04 Oct 2013 11:21:37 +0000
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