Here is todays outlook! As of now we remain in the categorical outlook for showers and storms. The southern part of Siouxland is in a 2% probability for the tornado outlook. The wind and hail outlook for siouxland still remain in the 5%. So it my be breezy at times today. The hail outlook will only affect the far southern part of Siouxland. We will keep you updated for the latest information. Have a good day everyone! SPC AC 281242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONAL BUT MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS INTO NORTH CAROLINA. ...SYNOPTIC SETUP... SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS REMAINING CONFINED TO SRN CANADA AND CNTRL/NRN NEW ENGLAND...AND RIDGE PERSISTING ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY/SOUTHEAST. IN THE SRN BRANCH...GRADUAL WEAKENING OF CO LOW/TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WRN KS/NEB LATER TODAY...AND INTO ERN NEB/CNTRL KS TNGT/EARLY FRI. AT LWR LVLS...ELONGATED LOW/TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM CNTRL NEB SSW INTO W TX WILL EDGE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRONT EXTENDING ESE FROM SRN NEB TO CNTRL MO SHOULD ADVANCE SLOWLY NEWD...WHILE THE ERN EXTENT OF THE SAME BOUNDARY MOVES FARTHER S ACROSS THE TN VLY AND CAROLINAS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CROSSING NY/NEW ENGLAND. ...MID-MO VLY SSW INTO W TX THIS AFTN/EVE... TSTMS NOW OVER CNTRL KS/ERN NEB AND SW IA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE EJECTING NNE AHEAD OF CO UPR LOW/TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING/DEVELOPING GENERALLY NEWD THROUGH THE DAY...AFFECTING THE REMAINDER OF IA AND PARTS OF MO...MN...AND IL. WITH MOST OF THE STORMS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELEVATED ATOP WEAK WARM/STNRY FRONT...AND WITH UPR IMPULSE MOVING BEYOND ZONE OF GREATEST LOW-LVL INSTABILITY...LIKELIHOOD FOR SUSTAINED SVR WEATHER WILL BE LOW. A CELL OR TWO COULD...HOWEVER...YIELD LOCALLY DMGG WIND IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN HIGH PW /APPROACHING 2 INCHES/ OVER REGION. LATER TODAY...SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN A BAND OF STRONGER INSTABILITY /SBCAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J PER KG/ ALONG LEE TROUGH FROM W TX NNE TO VICINITY OF FRONT OVER CNTRL/ERN NEB. COUPLED WITH THE SIMULTANEOUS ARRIVAL OF FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN PORTION OF CO UPR SYSTEM...EXPECT FAIRLY VIGOROUS AFTN STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST GIVEN MERIDIONAL/UNIDIRECTIONAL MID/UPR-LVL FLOW. BUT OVERALL SETUP LIKELY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION AND SUSTENANCE. THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS COULD YIELD SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND AS THEY ORGANIZE INTO SLOWLY-MOVING BANDS/CLUSTERS THROUGH EARLY TNGT. ...MID-MS/LWR OH VLYS ESE INTO NC THIS AFTN... DEEP SHEAR AND MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK ALONG COLD FRONT SETTLING S/SW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...THE TN VLY...AND THE LWR OH/MID-MS VLYS TODAY GIVEN PROXIMITY OF UPR RIDGE. HOWEVER...APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LWR OH AND MID-MS VLYS...WHERE PW WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. SFC HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF WDLY SCTD DIURNAL TSTMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD YIELD LOCALLY DMGG WIND AS THEY MERGE INTO SMALL CLUSTERS. ..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 08/28/2014
Posted on: Thu, 28 Aug 2014 14:28:29 +0000
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