‘I have come to see more and more that one of the most decisive steps that the Negro can take is that little walk to the voting booth. That is an important step. Weve got to gain the ballot, and through that, gain political power”……… Martins Luther King It is the yuletide season again when Christians like me across the globe look forward to the celebration of the birth of our Lord Jesus. While this raises some air of celebration, we can’t do without giving some of our concentration to political happenings as the 2015 February General Election draws near because remember, ‘All politics is local’. Aided by the social media, somehow we have all become political buff, interested in who is where? Who are the candidates? Who had defected or thinking of? Who is the Vice Presidential candidate of APC? Which party will win the presidential race? Ectera ectera… So in view of this, I want to add my two kobo view to the national discourse on electoral practice in’ Nigeria, standing on perhaps, extensive but still limited road-side back-bencher participatory experience in our electoral process. According to Justice Oluwadare Aguda in ‘Understanding the Nigerian Constitution’ (page 5), the Electoral system of Nigeria stands on 3 legs;- The role and functions of the Independent National Electoral commission (INEC), the role and functions of the political parties and finally, the electoral process. These 3 legs should all work together in producing an election that is acceptable to the people as Election presents the opportunity for the people to handpick or elect those who will lead them. It empowers the people to exercise some form of control as it makes the ‘elected officer’ answerable or sensitive to the cause of the people because the elected is elected for a specific period which after expiration, he must come for a renewal of the support. This is why the constitution says ‘sovereignty lies with the people’. No doubt, the big one is the Presidential election coming in February 2015.How will things pan out in February? Analysts have begun to speculate as all facts hints to a 2 horse race between the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the re-packaged opposition party, the All People’s Congress (APC), a remake of the 2011 Election with the same 2 major acts, Prsidnt Goodluck Jonathan (PDP) and General Buhari, though with little variations. Who will take the day? In my view, these are some of the factors that will affect the outcome. The 2 usual suspects’, religion and tribalism as usual will be on the front burner in this election. No doubt, the North has been clamouring for a return of the presidency to the zone to enable them complete their ‘unconstitutionally two terms’. Thus, the initial declaration of the Northern Elders that they will support any Party that fields a Northern presidential candidate in the 2015 presidential election. Still, despite the North clamouring for a Northern Presidential candidate, Buhari’s emergence as the frontline Northern candidate will question the seriousness of some of their leaders. While he is overtly popularly with the Northern masses, some Northern power-blocs will have to consider the cost of having him in power; satisfy the yearning of the people and in doing that adjusting to a life with less political maneuvering and public enrichment opportunities or allowing the status quo remain because of their business interest and risk facing the wrath of the people, if found out. On the other hand, the people of the Niger-Delta had argued that ‘it’s Goodluck or nothing’ in 2011. Supported by the other tribal groups from the South (including the alleged ACP) and mainly Christians across the nation, not overlooking the sizable pocket of Northern support, GEJ and PDP were able to sweep the Presidential Election. But things are not as it were. The South is not speaking with one voice anymore. GEJ on the other hand does not have the united front from the South. Even in his South-South region, he does not enjoy the same level of camaraderie he had in 2011. In the last election, the PDP had a clean sweep of all APC lead states except Osun, despite the statse having sitting ACN governors. The South-West definitely won’t be as supportive as Bola Ahmed Tinubu (BAT) appears to be ready to go the whole hog with the APC this time. Did I hear someone say with BAT, anything can happen? Not this time. This time around, there is no united front from the South-South. Ameachi’s defection from the PDP to the opposition made that impossible. Likewise, the rumoured fight between the President and His home governor, if true, might also divide the votes from his home state. Some pundits have argued that if the APC can acquire majority votes from the North-West and the South-West, they are one-leg to overcoming the ruling party as those regions have a high percentage of voters. Perhaps, but they will need to stop the PDP tsunami from the South-South and South-East if they seriously want to takeover Abuja. I have always presented the notion that PDP’s continuous occupation of Aso Rock is premeditated on the outcome of activities from the South-South and the South-East. Let me explain. Election in the South-West zone is always competitive between the parties and may have the potential to swing anyway, but this is not the case in the South-South and South-East. Using the 2011 Presidential election, the South-South states and South East state returned basically over 95% of votes casted to the PDP. At that election, both of these zones provided the PDP with a total of 11,003,754 votes out of the 12,066,840 casted, thereby giving the party over a 10million vote advantage over the opponents. (see exact figures stated state by state as footnote) At the end of the total votes count, the PDP candidate won by 10,280,334 with these two zones providing an advantage of 10,130,668. With these facts, without any doubt, these zones are the geese that lay the golden egg. This has been the story of these zones. Are there no oppositions in these states? How these votes are generated leaves a lot to explain. I was in Calabar for the 1999 and 2003 election and in Port Harcourt for 2007 election and I can say that the turnouts were not impressive but still, the results were high. My position, the results were bolstered. While rigging cuts across parties and the nation, rigging in these areas is advanced-level. Before the defection of Ameachi to the APC, one could safely say that the zones were safe havens for the PDP. While Okorocha had been the odd man after defecting from the PDP to APGA in 2007 before joining forces with APC, with Ameachi, the tide has changed. These men were insiders and obviously, knowledgeable about the ‘modus oprandus’ of the PDP. How much Ameachi and Okororocha can affect the dominance of the ruling party will go a long way in the race to occupy Aso Rocks. What are the hurdles to overcome by both parties? Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) PDP as a party in government suffers from a general perception of bad governance. Despite the figures presented by the National Bureau for Statistics, (NBS), many Nigerians will say that this is propaganda because our lot has not improved. A case of ‘Miles of achievement, inches of evidence”. Considering that we have a rising National debt profile and no significant change in the average purchasing power coupled with no power or other social improvement , there is a disconnect. The party needs to find a way to transfer the NOI’s statistics to tangible products. Sadly, time is not their friend because even if something is done swiftly (which is impossible), Nigerians will be skeptical because we understand the antics of politician when election is close Lack of internal Democracy Though Imposition has been the way of the PDP for a long time, in my view, this administration’s reliance on it to determine candidates as created a black hole that may sink the party. There is a high number of aggrieved party members as a natural fallout of the flawed ward and party primaries. This has seen the defection of some major players including ex-ministers, ex-governors. As I write, many state Gubernatorial Primaries are still in dispute. This can only lead to defection from the party or lackadaisical contribution from those who didn’t. Putting its house together before the election proper will do the ruling party a lot of good. The question is how? All Progressives Congress (APC) The removal of the ‘Islamic party’ toga and the Muslim fanatic tag that has been associated with the party and their Presidential candidate respectively is important. More enlightenment, more publicity is required to make in-roads into the South, especially the South-South and South- East The picking of the vice presidential candidate of the party, Professor Yemi Osibanjo provides some relief from that angle though there is more ground to cover. His appointment has been debated from 2 ends. The first that argues that he has no real political followership that a serving governor would have brought and also, no deep pocket. The second on the other hand presents the fact that he presents the party with some leverage to answer the religion question of having a Christian vice Presidential candidate viz-a-viz his perceived competence and integrity which hints that the APC truly aims to run an effective government. This might sway the votes of some professionals and other groups of Nigerians, especially the neutrals. From our position here, the 2015 election will definitely be an interesting one. What else can we say than to plead with the Electoral Commission (INEC), the State Security Service (DSS), the Nigeria Police, the Media, the National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW) and finally, the ex-militants and present militants to ‘let the minority have their say but let the majority have their way’ during and post February 2015 election. Thank you. Performance of the PDP in the South-East- state by state Abia (98.96%), Anambra (98.86%), Ebonyi (95.57%), Enugu (98.54%) and Imo (97.38%). To be specific, Abia (1,175,984 votes out of 1,188,333), Anambra (1,145,169 votes out of 1,157,239), Ebonyi (480,592 votes out of 502,890), Enugu (802,144 votes out of 814,000) and Imo (1,381,357 votes out of 1,409,850) The South-South had Akwa Ibom (94.58%), Bayelsa (99.63%), Cross Rivers (98.59%), Delta (98.59), Edo (87.28) and Rivers (98.04%). To be specific, Akwa Ibom (1,165,629 votes out of 1,616,873), Bayelsa (504,811 out of 506,693), Cross River (709,382 votes out of 726,382), Delta (1,378,851 votes out of 1,396,579), Edo (542,173 votes of 621,192) and Rivers (1,817,762 votes out of 1, 854,116).
Posted on: Tue, 23 Dec 2014 06:15:19 +0000
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