I love when people sit there and say "my forecasts are the most accurate." No, your forecasts are not the most accurate. It is just that you have a high streak of luck. I have had huge forecasts fall apart at the last minute model runs, I have had some hold out tremendous accuracy. That does not make me the most accurate, it is just that those model sets held out consistency, thus leading me to an accurate forecast. Models change daily and you might be pumping out a forecast, but it can change in those last minutes. I will give you a pretty good example of one. I had a forecast I was watching, and chased, which even others had seen the potential. It was a good call, which seemed worthy. However, the latest model runs, as I was in the field, killed the forecast. What I was in pursuit of had an isolated incident, where as I was expecting something more widespread. Never assume you are the best in a career, such as meteorology, where the odds of it changing in a moments notice is not far out of reach. You do have the right to be proud of being correct, I will give you that. However, proclaiming you are the best is very redundant and ridiculous. This applies to the field of meteorology and forecasting, it is possible to be consider the best in other fields, just not this one.
Posted on: Mon, 26 Aug 2013 19:57:33 +0000
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