Indication that New Delhi and Hanoi may be closer to closing a deal on the BrahMos came ahead of Indian President Pranab Mukherjee’s four day trip to Vietnam. Notably, it also comes as New Delhi prepares to receive Chinese President Xi Jinping on his inaugural trip to India. China, a major claimant of territory in the South China Sea, will not welcome the deal as it will improve Vietnam’s deterrence capabilities. As some analysts have noted, India’s interest in strengthening relations with Vietnam is driven both by its stated “Look East” policy and by a desire to check Chinese interests in the South China Sea. New Delhi also benefits directly from Vietnamese overtures. For example, ahead of Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj’s trip to Vietnam earlier this month, Hanoi renewed India’s lease of two oil blocks in the South China Sea. Acquisition of the BrahMos would be a significant strategic coup for Vietnam. It would primarily serve to bolster its credible deterrence against China. As the crisis earlier this year involving China’s oil rig Haiyang Shiyou 981 (HYSY 981) demonstrated, Vietnam remains ill-equipped to deter China from exerting administrative control over disputed waters. The BrahMos acquisition would represent a second peg in Vietnam’s asymmetric deterrence strategy, the first being its acquisition of six Russian improved Kilo-class submarines. The supersonic missiles would allow Vietnam to threaten any naval assets that China may choose to use in the future against Vietnamese interests. Aqab Malik Hamayoun Khan Habiba I. Butt
Posted on: Mon, 15 Sep 2014 18:24:03 +0000
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