I’ve been flying the 777 for 10 years, so I get asked what I think happened to MH370. I have yet to hazard a guess because no one scenario I could derive could explain all of the evidence. But today at the gym, while I was concentrating solely on getting to the end of my workout, the answer popped into my head. It explains what we know so far and, for me, it has that ‘there but for the grace of God, go I” element that I have seen in almost every airplane accident I have analyzed in my 40+ years of flying. I’ll try to explain it using a sequence of events for brevity. The ACARS has just reported via satellite and will not be interrogated for another 30 minutes. It’s not off, it’s just inactive. AT THIS POINT, a flash fire starts in the E&E compartment (Electronics and Electrical equipment compartment below the cabin floor and behind the cockpit, housing the battery, communications, and most importantly, the cockpit crew oxygen bottles). This is usually due to a battery short or thermal runaway, but any electrical cause in this location will fit because all the items are within a few feet of each other. A tire fire doesn’t fit because it is evident much earlier because of the smell and acrid smoke, and it’s in the wrong location to destroy vital items without first being detected. This is a fast, very hot fire that affords little warning. Several minutes later, the MH370 first officer makes his last radio call. Minutes later, as the airplane flies out of VHF radio range (about 230 miles at that altitude), electrical equipment starts to fail and electrical smoke (smells like an Lionel Electric Train set) enters the cockpit. The battery, and all the emergency radios on its’ bus are inoperative. The radio rack with the transponder is destroyed AND the oxygen tubing to the cockpit emergency oxygen masks are burned, which are next to the radio rack. The crew don their O2 masks and transmit a distress call but they are out of VHF range, and the emergency radio, the primary HF radio, and Satcom are inoperative. The experienced Captain turns immediately toward the closest airport and begins a descent. (This turn, is the convincer that this was heroism, not terrorism. If they wanted to not be detected, this is NOT the way to go.) They realize they have no oxygen in their masks, and pull out the emergency firefighting oxygen hoods that have a few minutes of oxygen. At some point the crew has realized that the fire cannot be controlled. The choice is to starve the fire of oxygen at very high altitude which they can climb to in a couple of minutes, or ditch the aircraft which will take at least 15 minutes, by which time the fire will have completely consumed the airplane. They elect to climb, and they are probably successful, because the fire’s fuel is mostly electrical equipment which will extinguish if the wiring and insulation have burned away, the ambient temperature from the altitude enters, and there is no oxygen. The crew start their descent again, probably on one of the remaining, redundant autopilots. But they are doomed. They are out of oxygen. They pass out. The aircraft levels off on the autopilot. With the control surfaces intact, the airplane flies until it runs out of fuel, several hours later.
Posted on: Tue, 25 Mar 2014 01:22:09 +0000
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