MAR ROXAS HAS EDGE IN 2016 N.B. An activist friend sent the following article for political contemplation. His thesis is that DILG Secretary Mar Roxas enjoys some edge in the final reckoning. He did some analysis of the survey results, as indicated by the details of the article. Please care to read. This guy has the scruples to argue on some solid basis, much different from the stuff dished out by the other camps, including VP Binay. I did not edit it. I did not change a word in this article. Please read... A reason for Mar Roxas to rejoice By Carmelo Redencion T. de Leoz, Jr. If we are to believe in surveys, then Mar Roxas has all the reason to rejoice for his numbers are improving particularly among the masses. This could be gleaned from the two consecutive surveys of Pulse Asia conducted in June 2014 and September 2014 or three months apart and yet the results are alarming for Binay but very much favorable for Roxas Binay’s decline is Roxas gain. The 6% of the 10% decline in Binay’s number went to Roxas. Binay used to have an d over-all preference rate of 41% in June and decreased to 31% in September or a 15% decline. Roxas meanwhile enjoyed a 6 % percent increase from a 7% rate in June to 13% in September. This is 60% gain of the total percentage points that Binay lost, gaining a significant majority gain despite of the many other presidential choices. In the June 2014 survey, Binay used to enjoy 40% preference from Class E respondents or the masses and this was reduced to 33% in the September 2014 survey or a decline of 7% from his stronghold. On the other hand, Roxas used to enjoy in June 2014 a 6% preference from Class E and astronomically increased to 19% in the September 2014 survey or an increase of 13% which way above the 7% decline of Binay for the same class. This means that Roxas did not only gain the support of those who left Binay but as well as those who either do not have a presidential preference yet or those who have others in mind but decided to go with Roxas probably because of the looming fear of a Binay presidency. Equally heartening for Roxas is the result for the middle or average class or Class D wherein in June 2014, Binay used to enjoy the preference of 42% and was reduced to 32% in September or a 10% reduction. While Roxas used to enjoy only 8% in June and ballooned to 12% preference in September or a 4% increase for Class D respondents. As can be gleaned for this class,Roxas only got 4% increase from the 10% reduction of Binay’s number, the survey shows that the bulk of Binay’s loss or 6% goes to Miriam Santiago who used to have a 6% preference in June and ballooned to 12% or 6% increase, which can account for the rest of Binay’s loss. On the other hand, the upper class or Class ABC is Binay’s greatest problem for it has a considerable reduction of 13% from a 36% preference in June to 23% in September. What is heartening for Binay though is that Roxas failed to get the support of his loss from this Class, wherein Roxas used to enjoy 7% of the support of Class ABC in June but only made it to 8% in September or just a negligible gain of 1%. Roxas though has a big chance to regain his foothold for this class since the loss of Binay was almost equitably distributed to others with 1% gain for Santiago from 16% in June to 17% in September. Grace Poe also gain 2% for this class, from 7% in June to 9% in September Erap though lose 2% for this class from 8% in June to 6% in September. High gainers are Escudero with 4% from 4% in June to 8% in September and Gordon who was enjoying only 3% preference from this class in June to 8% in September or a 5% increase. With above numbers, the fight can be three-way or among Binay, Roxas and Santiago. Santiago used to enjoy 7% preference in June for the entire country and increased to 11% in September or a 4% improvement which means she shared the 10% over-all loss of Binay with Roxas, with 6% going to Roxas and the remaining 4% to her. This means that Miriam Santiago gained 40% of what was gone of Binay’s number which manifests that only her and Roxas divided the pie that was originally of Binay. Grace Poe, Escudero and Estrada are still viable candidates but their numbers are unpromising. Estrada and Escudero gained 1% in their over-all preference rating, with 9% and 7% in June and increased to 10% and 8% in September, respectively. Poe on the other hand suffered a 2% decline in her over-all preference rating from 12% in June to 10% in September which means she did not gain in the loss of Binay which can be attributed to her continued silence in the on-going senate hearing. Gordon, Cayetano and the rest can rely on the result of the next survey. Gordon is still on the run having gained the bulk of Binay’s loss over the Class ABC though his numbers are inconsequential from 1% over-all in June to 2% in September and besides Class ABC is a small number and are not the voting class. Cayetano has a lot to worry because he used to have a 5% over-all preference in June and this was downed to 1% in September or a reduction of 4%. Trillanes name though was not included in the June and September survey which may put him a tail-from behind candidate just like what Binay did in 2010. The circumstances behind the September 2014 survey have changed a lot so the next survey is quite interesting. In the next survey, the people has now in mind the Hacienda Binay, the condo units, the debate back-out, Antonio Tiu and the continuous refusal of Binay to face the senate despite mounting clamor and surveys showing people’s preference for him to accede to the invitation of the senate. Pending release of the next survey result, Roxas can now capitalize on his 13% gain in Class E by really immersing himself to them and by pronouncing programs and projects that will redound to their benefits. Roxas is now piercing the urban legend that he is not acceptable to the masses but this very survey that his opponents are using to discredit him speaks volume of his increasing foothold over this economic class. Therefore, contrary to belief, Roxas problem is not Class E but the thinking class or Class ABC and D who can go for Binay because of their possible gain under a Binay presidency either through political patronage or back in business thing in government. It should be noted that Class ABC and D are full of politicians and businessmen and other players who were either dislodged or their income generating activities were compromised under the Aquino administration. Carmelo Redencion T. de Leoz Jr, used to be the Head of the Product Development and Marketing Department of PostBank and thus is exposed in doing market research and getting the pulse of the public for marketing purposes. He also worked in PMS under the President’s Social Fund handling the street children, livelihood and the special concern programs responsible for the evaluation of various funding proposals under the programs. He has worked as consultant in various NGOs and labor organizations such as the Philippine Government Employees Association.
Posted on: Fri, 05 Dec 2014 05:38:31 +0000
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