MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1664 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0349 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN KY...MIDDLE/ERN TN...FAR SWRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 022049Z - 022145Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KY AND MIDDLE TN...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO ERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN AND FAR SWRN VA. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SEVERAL BANDS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ORIENTED FROM NRN MIDDLE TN ENEWD ACROSS ERN KY INTO SRN WV. MORE RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING OVER NWRN TN INVOF AN AGITATED CU FIELD. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND AS A RESULT...DEEP-LAYER WINDS ARE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN AREAS TO THE N. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST /E.G. PW VALUES OF APPROACHING 2 INCHES/ AND WEAKLY CAPPED...AND CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST A SEMI-CONTINUOUS CONVECTIVE LINE WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG HEATING AND RESULTANT STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST LOCALIZED SVR WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS SUCH...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING SVR WIND POTENTIAL...WHICH MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE. ..ROGERS/HART.. 09/02/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...MEG... LAT...LON 37238172 36248310 35648476 35448659 35488807 35778843 36138831 36478711 37128568 37648506 38018393 38008352 37858258 37238172
Posted on: Tue, 02 Sep 2014 20:50:42 +0000
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