Manila Counts Cost Of Haiyan MANILA, Nov 20, (Agencies): Super Typhoon Haiyan’s devastating assault on the central Philippines exerted a catastrophic human cost, but analysts say its impact on one of Asia’s fastest growing economies will be less traumatic. The national economy has been on an upswing for the past five years and expanded 7.6 percent in the first half of 2013 — a remarkable turnaround for a country once seen as an irredeemable non-achiever. The government targeted gross domestic product (GDP) growth of between 6.0 and 7.0 percent for the whole year, and now the question is whether that needs to be re-calibrated in the wake of the typhoon damage. The Philippines is no stranger to natural disasters, but Haiyan was in a class of its own, packing some of the strongest winds ever recorded by a storm making landfall. More than 4,000 people were killed and up to 4.4 million displaced — twice the number that lost their homes after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. According to the Inter-national Labour Organisation, around five million workers — equivalent to the population of Norway — had their livelihoods temporarily or permanently destroyed. Risk modelling specialists such as AIR Worldwide have forecast the total economic loss at anywhere between $6.5 billion and $15 billion dollars. But as grim as those statistics are, the macro economic cost of Typhoon Haiyan will, according to initial estimates from various sources, be lighter than might have been expected from a storm of such destructive power. The typhoon barrelled through some of the poorest regions in the country, sparing any significant manufacturing base and largely impacting agricultural areas producing rice and coconut. “The affected areas account for a relatively small proportion of GDP, so the impact on headline GDP is likely to be small and manageable,” Credit Suisse said in a report that questioned forecasts suggesting Haiyan would shave one percentage point off the 2013 annual growth rate. “Exports of agricultural products will be impacted, but they form a relatively small portion of overall exports,” the report said. There is some concern over a spike in inflation triggered by higher rice prices, but most estimates predict it would be short-lived, especially if enough rice seed is provided for the crucial December-January planting season. The Philippine central bank has indicated it would consider tweaking monetary policy if the typhoon’s inflationary legacy persists, but said economic growth goals for the year were still achievable. “Our own runs (projections) show that 2013 GDP growth could still be within the government’s target range, as rehabilitation efforts could make up for lost production,” bank governor Amando Tentangco told the Wall Street Journal. Economists such as Ronald Mendoza, executive director at the Asian Institute of Management in Manila, believe the reconstruction effort could prove to be the silver lining in the Haiyan story. “There is a real opportunity here to encourage inclusive growth in a historically impoverished region that has been largely disconnected from those elements driving the national economy,” Mendoza said. “An ambitious rebuilding programme would not just be good for the region. It would also send an important message to foreign investors about the country’s resilience and its ability to bounce back from crisis,” he added. The Philippines reached an important milestone this year as, one after the other, the three global rating agencies granted the country investment-grade status. Bustled The streets around Tacloban’s biggest wet market bustled on Wednesday with residents rebuilding their shattered lives 12 days after the city was reduced to matchwood and rubble by one of the world’s biggest typhoons. Typhoon Haiyan smashed into the central Philippines on Nov 8, laying waste to just about everything in its path, killing more than 4,000 people and leaving four million displaced. Bodies are still being pulled from under the debris in Tacloban, the once-scenic gateway to the Eastern Visayas that bore the brunt of the storm. The city, capital of Leyte province, was without food or water for days, setting off a frenzy of looting, before roads were cleared and aid and supplies started to trickle back in. There was palpable optimism amongst the muddy stalls early on Wednesday as people bought anything from fish and live chickens to milk formula and underwear. A small girl glugged greedily on a large bottle of Coca-Cola as her mother laid out chillies and tomatoes on a board. Vendor Lorana Cahedios, selling slices of pumpkin, had joined in the widespread looting of supermarkets and shops in those first desperate days. “What we did was loot, because we were worried that we would have nothing to sell. But when we started selling what we looted — canned goods, groceries, anything — we were very happy that it all sold. Then we had hope,” she said. But it is still not business as usual. Most goods were selling for at least double the normal price, down from triple prices a few days ago, shoppers and vendors said. A medical equipment technician joined a crowd around a whole pig being carved up. “It’s very hard, but it’s okay,” he said. “At least there’s something to buy now and we still have money to buy. If we don’t have money, that’ll be the problem. Perhaps in a month, we won’t have any money left, because we don’t even have jobs now.” The International Labour Organization said five million workers had had their lives turned upside down in the central Philippines. The shattered shell of the former meat market highlighted the long road back to normalcy. Seventy-four-year-old butcher Jaime Ladios has been sleeping on his counter since the market was hit. Too old to head out of town to find meat to sell, and with no contact or money from his family living in Japan, he has nothing to do but wait. “I have been in this market since my youth. This has always been my job. Then I got married,” he said. “Now I am a widower. I’m alone.” Estimates of the death toll have varied widely over the past 12 days, but the government now estimates the toll at around 4,000. But the governor of Leyte reckons more than 4,000 people could have been killed in just his province alone. Criticism Meanwhile, China is sending a state-of-the-art hospital ship to the Philippines following criticism that it was slow and stingy in its response to one of the world’s biggest typhoons, which killed at least 4,000 people. The Foreign Ministry in Beijing confirmed on Tuesday the deployment of the 14,000-tonne “Peace Ark” as state television reported the arrival of the first batch of Chinese relief supplies in the Philippines. The Ark’s exact area of operations and time of arrival have not been confirmed, but spokesman Hong Lei said it would set sail on Thursday. “We hope that this action can alleviate the current situation in the Philippines, which is lacking doctors and medicine, and reflect the Chinese people’s friendly feelings for the people of the Philippines,” Hong said. China’s emergency medical rescue team of 51 people leaves on Wednesday, Hong said, adding that the Red Cross Society of China was sending two batches of international rescue teams, with a first group of 16 having already left and a second group of 14 set to leave on Friday. “China has always been concerned about the Philippines typhoon disaster,” Hong said in an earlier statement. Tension between China and the Philippines has risen in recent months over disputed claims in the South China Sea, with Manila taking Beijing to a United Nations court to challenge its historic claim to much of the strategic waterway. China’s usually hawkish Global Times, a tabloid owned by the government mouthpiece, the People’s Daily, last week urged the deployment of the Ark amid criticism of Beijing’s response by foreign commentators. China, the world’s second-largest economy, initially announced it was giving $200,000 and then bumped that up by $1.6 million. On Sunday, it said it was ready to send rescue and medical teams. In contrast, the United States has mobilised about 50 ships and aircraft in the disaster zone, with helicopters delivering supplies from an aircraft carrier. It has announced more than $37 million in humanitarian aid. Armed forces and aid agencies are struggling to get help to devastated areas in the Philippines, where the typhoon has left more than four million people homeless. The Ark will join an international flotilla of naval ships now delivering food, water and medicine to victims of Typhoon Haiyan, which tore across the central Philippine on Nov 8, smashing just about everything in its path. via arab times
Posted on: Thu, 21 Nov 2013 21:22:20 +0000
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