Much cooler weather is on the way. Here is the Forecast Discussion from the NWS EAX: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1228 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2013 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 353 AM CDT WED SEP 11 2013 Cooler weather is definitely on the way but we`ll need to get through one more day of unseasonably hot conditions with temperatures running about 15 degrees above average. A weak cold front extending from near the KS/NE border through northeast IA will gradually sag southward today. A strong shortwave digging southeast through central Canada is expected to deepen as it rotates through the Great Lakes tonight/Thursday. The lowering heights from the Great Lakes southwestward in response to the digging shortwave will force the cold front to backdoor through the CWA late tonight. This will allow a steady northeasterly fetch of cooler air to filter in from IA and IL. However, it appears the cooling will come in two waves with the first wave arriving late tonight and Thursday with the initial frontal passage and the second wave signaling a second surge of much cooler and drier air arriving Thursday night and Friday. This second surge will ultimately send temperatures down into the 50s for Friday and Saturday mornings. Friday will be an exceptionally beautiful day with highs in the 70s. Rain chances will hinge on wringing out whatever mid level moisture is available within the post frontal baroclinic zone. Scattered elevated convection currently extending from south central NE through northeast IA will likely take on a diurnal curve with the activity weakening by mid morning and then ramping up somewhat in the afternoon hours. Instability is limited and modeled soundings show a relatively skinny CAPE around 1000 J/kg. Steep lapse rates and a notable inverted vee profile offer the potential for downburst winds. However, the vertical wind profile is decidedly weak with few levels with winds in excess of 25kts, so any wind gusts should be sub-severe. The showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually shift southward overnight and exit the southern CWA by Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts will be relatively light due to the lack of significant low level moisture. A refreshing northeast wind will draw in very pleasant temperatures Thursday night through Friday night. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 353 AM CDT WED SEP 11 2013 Saturday is expected to be a pleasant day over the region as temperatures remain in the upper 70s. By Saturday night and Sunday, shortwave energy will begin to cross the Plains, pushing a frontal boundary towards and into the CWA. Convection will likely accompany this front into the area, primarily focused towards Sunday morning as the LLJ veers to the SW. This front will drop southward into southern Missouri/Kansas by Monday, with low-level moisture and baroclinic zone shifting just to the southwest of the CWA by Monday. Models begin to diverge on just how fast fast precipitation chances will return for next week as energy continues to move over the Northern Plains and the upper ridge shifts into the southeastern US. However, the brief transition to southwesterly flow should lead to slightly enhanced rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday of next week along with a upwards tick in temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 1226 PM CDT WED SEP 11 2013 VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Only wrinkle in that plan will be a weak cold front that will settle through western Missouri today through tonight. This will allow the focus for widely scattered storms in far northern Missouri to slowly shift south this afternoon and overnight when post frontal showers may become widespread. Terminals in Kansas City still look to have a fairly high potential for staying dry overnight. Either way, clouds associated with the precipitation should remain in the VFR range. Otherwise, the wind will also slowly shift to the northeast Thursday morning. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. &&
Posted on: Wed, 11 Sep 2013 18:39:47 +0000
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