NOREASTER EVENING UPDATE Good evening everybody, were still on track for a snowstorm for Western Mass to impact holiday travel on Wednesday, and the plows are certainly coming out for the first time this cold season. Some slight timing changes, and Im now thinking we could see precip move in as early as the late morning on Wednesday. However, at the start, it could be falling as plain old rain, but as the column gets colder through dynamic cooling, any rain or ice will change to snow across Western Mass. Another factor that is tricky in terms of snowfall amounts, is how dry or wet will the snow be? While it appears the storm track will cross near The Benchmark (40 degrees N, 70 degrees W, about 50 miles due south of Nantucket), any minor shift in track west or east can have big impacts on how snow stacks up. A little more to the east, and colder air mixes in, raising the snow ratio (precip amount in liquid inches, to inches of snow on the ground, which is normally 1 inch of rain to 10 inches of snow, but can go as high as 1:15 with fluffy, drier snow). A little more to the west, and we could see some ice mix in over eastern Hampden county, and a wetter snow. Ive been calling for 4 to 8 inches of snow with some higher amounts up to 10 inches or so, most likely in the eastern hilltowns of Franklin and Hampshire county. That 4 inch amount might be too low of a floor for amounts, could end up being a minimum of 5 or 6 inches everywhere, but Im leaving it where it is for the moment. Without the track locked in, Im wary of going with higher amounts, but will adjust by tomorrow night with my final thoughts. Wind-swept rain on Cape Cod and the islands with this one. If you live in WMass and love snow, this is the kind of setup where we get the jackpot. Thanksgiving morning should see a shut off in precip. More tomorrow, have a good evening. P.S. speaking of tomorrow, enjoy the day, temps well into the 50s, and partly sunny. The literal calm before the storm.
Posted on: Tue, 25 Nov 2014 02:00:47 +0000
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