OGUN 2015; IN SEARCH OF PDP WINNING FORMULAR. As the 2015 general elections hots up, there should be no serious doubt that in Ogun State, it is going two horse race battle between the APC and PDP. The APC has already got her job well cut out with the choice of her gubernatorial candidate in the Incumbent Governor Ibikunle Amosun. The governor has been able to suppress all internal opposition to his candidature. The Chief Olusegun Osoba led faction can at very best look for political greener pasture elsewhere be it through the AGN or otherwise. The PDP on her part has also got its rank and files more enriched with the coming on board of Otunba Gbenga Daniel led faction of Labour Party. But the challenge the PDP will be facing is the choice of its gubernatorial candidate. The party needs a winning formula and a personality that can lead the party to victory at the poll. The arrays of personalities in the likes of Alhaji Rafiu Ogunleye, Hon Jelili Kayode Amosun, Hon Dimeji Bankole, Engnr Tony Ojesina, Hon Isiaq Abiodun Akinlade and Omoba Segun Adewale has already signified their intention to fly the partys flag. Feelers also has it that duo of Prince Gboyega Nasir Isiaka and Prince Yanju Lipede might join the race in due course. But for now, they are still studying their crystal ball but unfortunately time is no longer their friend. All these aforementioned aspirants have their assets and liabilities politically; Hon Amusan was a former two terms member of House of Representatives, he lost out in the high wired political chess game of 2011 general election. He is from Ogun Central, a senatorial district that the present governor hails from. If the PDP settle for Hon Amusan, then Governor Amosun look good to return to Oke Mosan Government House. This is because the governor will likely polls more than 60 percent of expected votes from the area considering the level of subjective performance of the governor and go on to win, may be slightly in the other two senatorial districts. The PDP will automatically face the same scenario if not worse if Hon Dimeji Bankole fly the party flag, because he is also from Ogun Central. Hon Dimeji Bankole lost out at the poll in his bid to return to the House of Representatives as a Sitting Speaker of the House in 2011. His constituency then is just one Local Government(Abeokuta South). If Hon Dimeji lost as a Sitting Speaker with all the apparatus of the office around him in 2011, then the question is, has any magic wand turned around his political trajectory between then and now? The truth is, Hon Dimeji Bankole popularity and political acceptance might have dropped drastically. This is because immediately after he lost the election, he abandoned the party and all the people who were always with him. Instances are abound. He went on political siberia or better still sabbatical which might have affected his political structure if he has any, in no small measure before his return. The EFCC case didnt also help him much. Hon Dimeji Bankole as a flag bearer will automatically be a disaster in waiting for PDP as Governor Amosun will just be on a roller coaster to victory as no amount of image laundry mechanism can swing the victory for the with Dimeji as co-efficient of PDP. As for Alhaji Rafiu Ogunleye, age is not on his side any longer. At over 74 years of age, baba might be too old for the job at hand. Ogun state is a highly sophisticated State that require a man full of vigour and energy to confront Governor Amosun in the first instance. More so Babas political structure outside Ogun East, his base, is near zero. If the party settle for Baba, the tendency is that both PDP and APC will split Ogun East votes into two at best for the PDP, while APC will have a resounding victory in Ogun Central. APC will also carry the day in Ogun West because all APC needs to do is for Governor Amosun is to assure the people of Ogun West of his support comes 2019 and that would do the magic of bulk votes for APC. That is where Ogun West factor comes to play. For now Omoba Segun Adewale and Hon Akinlade are the two aspirants from Ogun West on the platform of PDP. Gboyega Isiaka might comes in no time though. Its highly expedient, important and strategic for the PDP to settle for her candidate from Ogun West because that would guarantee bulk votes since the area has not been able to produce the Governor of the state up till today. That will also assuage the feeling of being classified as a second class citizen in their own state. There is high tendency that the people of the zone will support a good candidate from the area. Omoba Segun Adewale might be a good personality but he has not been tested politically and electoral wise. The PDP cannot afford to gamble with the political tidal wave going on in the South west. It could be disastrous at the end of the day. For now he is a green horn politically and this is not the right time for test running if the party really desirous of winning the governorship. The Ogun West formula for PDP can only result to electoral victory when complimented with a strong personality with good prospect and electoral asset that commands a large chunk of the votes respect. This is where Hon Akinlade comes handy. His is not a political neophyte. Hon Akinlade has a winning mentality and victorious antecedents.; having been to the polls on three different occasions and winning all. Among all the aspirants on the platform of the PDP, he look to be the best prepared with his New Pact Policy Thrust flying around. Truthfully, one can count Hon Akinlades faults, multiply his mistakes, treble his errors as a human being but when matched against his abilities, good intentions and deeds, relentless and fierce struggle to put his constituency nay Ogun State on a straight and solid footing, vigorous and superlative achievement in his present office as a member of House Of Representatives, the net verdict will surely be inescapable - that he Akinlade is the most outstanding of all the aspirants. He has a good democratic credentials, his outstanding vision has been demonstrated overtime, he is sagacious and beacon of hope for the youths. He has remained constant like the Northern Stars, particularly among his cult like followers across the state. He also understand the psyche of Governor Amosun better having aspire along with him in 2011. From all these, the PDP/ Akinlade ticket with a running mate of great clout look formidable to dislodge Amosun from government house. There is no way with his present popularity ranting that Akinlade will not deliver up to 60 percent votes, to be modest from Ogun West for the PDP. If all the political bigwigs in Ogun PDP like Prince Buruuji Kasamu, Otunba Gbenga Daniel, Matins Kuye, Lekan Mustapha and the rest can work together and Akinlade as the candidate being the primus inter pares among all the aspirants, then Governor Amosun can begin to prepare his handover note without delay. This is my candid observation, analysis and winning formula for the PDP in Ogun State. I however stands to be corrected by any objective and superior analysis or observation! Tunde Olusegun writes from Ota
Posted on: Sat, 18 Oct 2014 11:06:16 +0000